Boston trails 9-8 early, but the model still has the Celtics at 83 percent. Nine minutes in is too soon to read much into a one-point deficit, and the crowd has not picked a side yet.
NBA · · TD Garden · every National Basketball Association line
Chicago Bulls vs Boston Celtics: final score and how the prediction did, October 30, 2026
- Final scoreBulls 111, Celtics 125 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerCeltics 83%
- Pregame Projected scoreCeltics 123, Bulls 110
- Model spreadCeltics −13 total 232.5
- Margin14 projected 13
- Total236 projected 232.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Chicago Bulls or Boston Celtics: the bandwagon
Bandwagon1 on the bandwagon so far
Be the first on the bandwagon
Axle 17–83Market 14–86
FinalPregame: BOS 83%Baseline: BOS 97.8% (+14.4)Big swing: 8.7 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 25 | 24 | 25 | 37 | 111 |
| BOS | 44 | 34 | 21 | 26 | 125 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for BOS over the last 5:00
Big swing8.7 ptstoward BOS at 3:49 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 5 points in the final quarter
BaselineBOS 97.8%game average, +14.4 points from the pregame 83.4%
Chicago Bulls vs Boston Celtics live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | CHI | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | CHI35/93 | BOS42/82 |
| 3-pointers | CHI15/50 | BOS10/32 |
| Free throws | CHI26/40 | BOS31/40 |
| Rebounds | CHI51 | BOS41 |
| Assists | CHI24 | BOS28 |
| Turnovers | CHI16 | BOS14 |
| Steals | CHI6 | BOS10 |
| Blocks | CHI6 | BOS2 |
| Points in the paint | CHI40 | BOS58 |
| Fast-break points | CHI16 | BOS17 |
| Fouls | CHI33 | BOS27 |
| Largest lead | CHI3 | BOS32 |
Chicago Bulls vs Boston Celtics team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | CHI | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CHI111 | BOS125 |
| Average win probability | CHI2% | BOS98% |
| Longest scoring run | CHI+8 | BOS+8 |
| Time leading | CHI0:11 | BOS46:54 |
Chicago Bulls vs Boston Celtics model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 30, 9:36 PM ET
Bulls17%
Win chanceCeltics83%
SpreadBOS −13closing model spread
Total232.5
Moneyline+496away / −496homeaway / home
Line movementBOS win chance, 13 stored lines
+24 pts for BOS between Oct 28 and Oct 30
93%54%
Oct 28Oct 30
Every stored line
| Stored | BOS win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 9:36 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 9:36 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 83% | −4 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 2:00 AM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:06 AM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:41 AM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:09 AM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:54 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 87% | +28 |
| Oct 28, 10:45 PM ET | 59% | — |
- Ratings
- BOS 1628 · CHI 1343
- Home spread
- −13
- Stored
- Oct 30, 9:36 PM ET · 2026-10-31 01:36 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Chicago Bulls 111, Boston Celtics 125. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 29, 10:38 PM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · 1 pick
Be the first on the bandwagon
BullsCeltics
Neutrals only–
BullsCeltics
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Celtics–
1 pick so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Bulls vs Celtics odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NBA marketKalshi had the Celtics at 87% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 86% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 83% when last read, ; the two venues were 1 point apart at those reads.
| Source | CHI | BOS | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 13% | 87% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 14% | 86% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 17% | 83% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, BOS: +3Polymarket minus model, BOS: +2
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Chicago Bulls vs Boston Celtics prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Celtics a 13-point favorite at home, with a 83% chance to win. The model total is 232.5. Ratings: Celtics 1634 (6th of 30), Bulls 1336 (24th). The Celtics are 5-2 in the Atlantic; the Bulls are 1-6 in the Central. The Celtics have won 4 of their last 5; the Bulls 0 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Celtics won 5, the Bulls 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Chicago Bulls
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at New York Knicks | L 105–135 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Philadelphia 76ers | L 107–126 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Boston Celtics | L 111–125 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New York Knicks | L 127–133 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Boston Celtics | L 99–134 | – | – | matchup |
Boston Celtics
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Milwaukee Bucks | W 109–102 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Houston Rockets | L 93–109 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Orlando Magic | W 108–97 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Chicago Bulls | W 125–111 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Brooklyn Nets | W 125–124 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics | 99–134 | – | – | matchup | |
| Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics | 105–124 | – | – | matchup | |
| Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls | 111–114 | – | – | matchup | |
| Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics | 101–115 | – | – | matchup | |
| Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics | 100–122 | – | – | matchup | |
| Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls | 123–98 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Chicago Bulls: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Boston Celtics: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bulls1-6 Central, 1st · L5
- Bulls rating1336 24th of 30, 7 games
- Celtics5-2 Atlantic, 4th · L1
- Celtics rating1634 6th of 30, 7 games
Chicago Bulls 1-6
National Basketball Association · Central · 1st · streak L5
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $BULLS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $BULLS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $BULLS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $BULLS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Chicago Bulls bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Boston Celtics 5-2
National Basketball Association · Atlantic · 4th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagon2 stances so far today on $CELTICS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagon1 stance so far today on $CELTICS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagon1 stance so far today on $CELTICS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
2 stances today on $CELTICS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Boston Celtics bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics
Sign in to post a take on $BULLSCELTICS261030: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Bulls 111, Celtics 125. Bandwagon's model had the Celtics at 83% and projected Celtics 123, Bulls 110; spread Celtics −13, total 232.5. Last read: Kalshi 87%, Polymarket 86% for the Celtics.