La Liga odds, Nov 16–22, 2026: Bandwagon's model vs Kalshi and Polymarket
Bandwagon's model has a line on 9 of 9 La Liga games Nov 16–22, 2026. Its biggest favorite is Real Madrid at 81%, against Celta Vigo; its closest game is Real Sociedad at Racing Santander, 38%–33%. The largest gap with a market is Espanyol at Athletic Club: the model gives Athletic Club 54% and Kalshi 67% (13 points). Model as of Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET; prices as of Nov 11, 2:51 AM ET.
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
La Liga Nov 16–22, 2026 slate
9 games| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Model win chance | Model spread | Model total | Kalshi | Polymarket | Crowd | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol at Athletic Club | Athletic Club 54% draw 26% | Athletic Club −0.5 | 2.5 | Athletic Club 67% | Athletic Club 65% | – | – | |
| Deportivo at Alavés | Alavés 42% draw 29% | Alavés −0.5 | 2.5 | Alavés 46% | Alavés 46% | – | – | |
| Valencia at Rayo Vallecano | Rayo Vallecano 49% draw 27% | Rayo Vallecano −0.5 | 2.5 | Rayo Vallecano 49% | Rayo Vallecano 49% | – | – | |
| Real Betis at Sevilla | Real Betis 44% draw 29% | Real Betis −0.5 | 3 | Real Betis 44% | Real Betis 43% | – | – | |
| Celta Vigo at Real Madrid | Real Madrid 81% draw 13% | Real Madrid −1.5 | 2.5 | Real Madrid 82% | Real Madrid 82% | – | – | |
| Villarreal at Barcelona | Barcelona 79% draw 14% | Barcelona −1.5 | 3.5 | Barcelona 80% | Barcelona 80% | – | – | |
| Real Sociedad at Racing Santander | Real Sociedad 38% draw 29% | even | 3.5 | Real Sociedad 46% | Real Sociedad 46% | – | – | |
| Málaga at Osasuna | Osasuna 51% draw 27% | Osasuna −0.5 | 3 | Osasuna 55% | Osasuna 55% | – | – | |
| Atlético Madrid at Getafe | Atlético Madrid 56% draw 25% | Atlético Madrid −0.5 | 2.5 | Atlético Madrid 61% | Atlético Madrid 60% | – | – |
Kalshi and Polymarket show their implied chance for the side the model favors (the home side where the model has no favorite), from the newest price in the last day; for a game already played, the last price before kickoff. The crowd column is Bandwagon members' picks.
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.