La Liga odds, Nov 2–8, 2026: Bandwagon's model vs Kalshi and Polymarket
Bandwagon's model has a line on 11 of 11 La Liga games Nov 2–8, 2026. Its biggest favorite is Real Madrid at 65%, against Valencia; its closest game is Athletic Club at Osasuna, 40%–31%. The largest gap with a market is Real Madrid at Valencia: the model gives Real Madrid 65% and Kalshi 80% (15 points). Model as of Nov 8, 5:05 AM ET; prices as of Nov 8, 2:41 PM ET.
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
La Liga Nov 2–8, 2026 slate
11 games| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Model win chance | Model spread | Model total | Kalshi | Polymarket | Crowd | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna at Deportivo | Deportivo 51% draw 27% | Deportivo −0.5 | 3 | – | – | – | Osasuna 1, Deportivo 2 model's favorite won | |
| Alavés at Sevilla | Sevilla 49% draw 27% | Sevilla −0.5 | 3 | Sevilla 49% | Sevilla 49% | – | Alavés 0, Sevilla 0 ended level | |
| Racing Santander at Málaga | Málaga 41% draw 29% | even | 3 | Málaga 43% | Málaga 43% | – | Racing Santander 2, Málaga 1 model's favorite lost | |
| Deportivo at Espanyol | Espanyol 43% draw 29% | Espanyol −0.5 | 2.5 | Espanyol 38% | Espanyol 38% | – | Deportivo 0, Espanyol 0 ended level | |
| Athletic Club at Osasuna | Athletic Club 40% draw 29% | even | 3 | Athletic Club 49% | Athletic Club 49% | – | Athletic Club 1, Osasuna 1 ended level | |
| Real Madrid at Valencia | Real Madrid 65% draw 21% | Real Madrid −1 | 3 | Real Madrid 80% | Real Madrid 80% | – | Real Madrid 3, Valencia 0 model's favorite won | |
| Real Betis at Elche | Real Betis 43% draw 29% | Real Betis −0.5 | 2.5 | Real Betis 54% | Real Betis 54% | – | Real Betis 2, Elche 0 model's favorite won | |
| Rayo Vallecano at Real Sociedad | Real Sociedad 47% draw 28% | Real Sociedad −0.5 | 3.5 | Real Sociedad 52% | Real Sociedad 53% | – | Rayo Vallecano 0, Real Sociedad 1 model's favorite won | |
| Getafe at Villarreal | Villarreal 61% draw 23% | Villarreal −1 | 2.5 | Villarreal 64% | Villarreal 64% | – | Getafe 0, Villarreal 2 model's favorite won | |
| Levante at Celta Vigo | Celta Vigo 53% draw 26% | Celta Vigo −0.5 | 2.5 | Celta Vigo 53% | Celta Vigo 53% | – | Levante 0, Celta Vigo 0 ended level | |
| Barcelona at Atlético Madrid | Barcelona 48% draw 28% | Barcelona −0.5 | 3.5 | Barcelona 51% | Barcelona 52% | – | Barcelona 2, Atlético Madrid 1 model's favorite won |
Kalshi and Polymarket show their implied chance for the side the model favors (the home side where the model has no favorite), from the newest price in the last day; for a game already played, the last price before kickoff. The crowd column is Bandwagon members' picks.
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
The model's record this week
The model's favorite won 6 of 11 finished La Liga games that had a favorite (55%), and 4 games ended level. Each line is the one stored before kickoff. The model's record