Atlético Madrid vs Getafe prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Atlético Madrid at Getafe: Bandwagon's model makes Atlético Madrid a 56% favorite (Atlético Madrid −0.5); Kalshi prices them at 61%.
Atlético Madrid vs Getafe model odds and win probability
Axle gives Atlético Madrid a 56% chance to win, with a 25% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every La Liga marketEach bar is the chance that Atlético Madrid win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 56%.
The largest gap is 5 points: Kalshi has Atlético Madrid at 61%, Axle at 56%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Atlético Madrid
All La Liga ratings| ATM | GET | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1562 3rd of 20 | 1386 16th of 20 |
| Record | 9-2-1 | 3-6-3 |
| Last 5 games | 2-2-1 | 1-3-1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 4 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | GET win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 19% | — |
Atlético Madrid vs Getafe odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every La Liga marketKalshi prices Atlético Madrid at 61%, Polymarket at 60% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 56%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | ATM | Draw | GET | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 61% | 23% | 16% | ||
| Polymarket | 60% | 24% | 16% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 56% | 25% | 19% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Atlético Madrid vs Getafe prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Atlético Madrid a 0.5-point favorite, with a 56% chance to win and a 25% chance of a draw. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: Getafe 1386 (16th of 20), Atlético Madrid 1562 (3rd). The Getafe are 3-6-3; the Atlético Madrid are 9-2-1. The Getafe have won 1 of their last 5; the Atlético Madrid 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Getafe won 1, the Atlético Madrid 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Atlético Madrid
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Barcelona | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Bayern Munich | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Levante | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Deportivo | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at VfB Stuttgart | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Getafe
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Villarreal | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sevilla | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Athletic Club | L 0–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Rayo Vallecano | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Barcelona | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe at Atlético Madrid | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Atlético Madrid at Getafe | 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Atlético Madrid at Getafe | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Getafe at Atlético Madrid | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Atlético Madrid at Getafe | 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Getafe at Atlético Madrid | 3–3 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Atlético Madrid: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Getafe: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Atlético Madrid9-2-1 3rd
- Atlético Madrid rating1562 3rd of 20, 12 games
- Getafe3-6-3 15th
- Getafe rating1386 16th of 20, 12 games
More La Liga games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Atlético Madrid 9-2-1
La Liga · 3rd
No stances yet today on $ATLETICO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Atlético Madrid bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Getafe 3-6-3
La Liga · 15th
No stances yet today on $GETAFE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Getafe bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Atlético Madrid at Getafe
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In La Liga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Atlético Madrid 56% to win, draw 25%. Projected score Atlético Madrid 1.6, Getafe 0.9; spread Atlético Madrid −0.5, total 2.5. Kalshi 61%, Polymarket 60% for Atlético Madrid. Atlético Madrid at Getafe, Sun, Nov 22, 3:00 PM ET.