Real Betis vs Sevilla prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Real Betis at Sevilla: Bandwagon's model makes Real Betis a 44% favorite (Real Betis −0.5); Kalshi prices them at 44%.
Real Betis vs Sevilla model odds and win probability
Axle gives Real Betis a 44% chance to win, with a 28% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every La Liga marketEach bar is the chance that Real Betis win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 44%.
The largest gap is 1 point: Axle has Real Betis at 44%, Polymarket at 43%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has Real Betis
All La Liga ratings| BET | SEV | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1518 4th of 20 | 1411 11th of 20 |
| Record | 8-2-2 | 5-4-3 |
| Last 5 games | 2-2-1 | 1-2-2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 2 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | SEV win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:58 PM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 9:57 AM ET | 28% | −2 |
| Nov 8, 5:05 AM ET | 30% | — |
Real Betis vs Sevilla odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every La Liga marketKalshi prices Real Betis at 44%, Polymarket at 43% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 44%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | BET | Draw | SEV | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 44% | 26% | 30% | ||
| Polymarket | 43% | 27% | 30% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 44% | 29% | 28% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Real Betis vs Sevilla prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Real Betis a 0.5-point favorite, with a 44% chance to win and a 29% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Sevilla 1411 (11th of 20), Real Betis 1518 (4th). The Sevilla are 5-4-3; the Real Betis are 8-2-2. The Sevilla have won 1 of their last 5; the Real Betis 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Sevilla won 1, the Real Betis 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Real Betis
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Elche | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Borussia Dortmund | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Málaga | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Celta Vigo | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Barcelona | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup |
Sevilla
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla at Real Betis | 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Real Betis at Sevilla | 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Sevilla at Real Betis | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Real Betis at Sevilla | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Sevilla at Real Betis | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Real Betis at Sevilla | 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Real Betis: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Sevilla: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Real Betis8-2-2 4th
- Real Betis rating1518 4th of 20, 12 games
- Sevilla5-4-3 6th
- Sevilla rating1411 11th of 20, 12 games
More La Liga games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Real Betis 8-2-2
La Liga · 4th
No stances yet today on $BETIS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Real Betis bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Sevilla 5-4-3
La Liga · 6th
No stances yet today on $SEVILLA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Sevilla bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Real Betis at Sevilla
Sign in to post a take on $BETISSEVILLA261121: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In La Liga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Real Betis 44% to win, draw 29%. Projected score Real Betis 1.6, Sevilla 1.4; spread Real Betis −0.5, total 3. Kalshi 44%, Polymarket 43% for Real Betis. Real Betis at Sevilla, Sat, Nov 21, 12:30 PM ET.