Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Celta Vigo at Real Madrid: Bandwagon's model makes Real Madrid an 81% favorite (Real Madrid −1.5); Kalshi prices them at 82%.
Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid model odds and win probability
Axle gives Real Madrid a 81% chance to win, by about 2 goals, with a 12% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every La Liga marketEach bar is the chance that Real Madrid win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 81%.
The largest gap is 1 point: Kalshi has Real Madrid at 82%, Axle at 81%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Real Madrid
All La Liga ratings| CEL | RMA | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1429 8th of 20 | 1661 2nd of 20 |
| Record | 2-3-7 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 games | 1-1-3 | 5-0 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 5 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | RMA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:58 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:28 PM ET | 81% | +1 |
| Nov 8, 5:05 AM ET | 80% | — |
Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every La Liga marketKalshi prices Real Madrid at 82%, Polymarket at 82%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 81%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | CEL | Draw | RMA | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 7% | 11% | 82% | ||
| Polymarket | 7% | 11% | 82% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 7% | 13% | 81% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Real Madrid a 1.5-point favorite at home, with a 81% chance to win and a 13% chance of a draw. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: Real Madrid 1661 (2nd of 20), Celta Vigo 1429 (8th). The Real Madrid are 10-2; the Celta Vigo are 2-3-7. The Real Madrid have won 5 of their last 5; the Celta Vigo 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Real Madrid won 5, the Celta Vigo 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Celta Vigo
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Levante | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Rayo Vallecano | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Real Betis | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Alavés | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Elche | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup |
Real Madrid
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Valencia | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Racing Santander | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Barcelona | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs RB Leipzig | W 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sevilla | W 4–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid at Celta Vigo | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Celta Vigo at Real Madrid | 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Celta Vigo at Real Madrid | 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Real Madrid at Celta Vigo | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Celta Vigo at Real Madrid | 0–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Real Madrid at Celta Vigo | 1–0 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Celta Vigo: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Real Madrid: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Celta Vigo2-3-7 11th
- Celta Vigo rating1429 8th of 20, 12 games
- Real Madrid10-2 2nd
- Real Madrid rating1661 2nd of 20, 12 games
More La Liga games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Celta Vigo 2-3-7
La Liga · 11th
No stances yet today on $CELTAVIGO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Celta Vigo bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Real Madrid 10-2
La Liga · 2nd
No stances yet today on $REALMADRID: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Real Madrid bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Celta Vigo at Real Madrid
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In La Liga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Real Madrid 81% to win, draw 13%. Projected score Real Madrid 2.1, Celta Vigo 0.4; spread Real Madrid −1.5, total 2.5. Kalshi 82%, Polymarket 82% for Real Madrid. Celta Vigo at Real Madrid, Sat, Nov 21, 3:00 PM ET.