Espanyol vs Athletic Club prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Espanyol at Athletic Club: Bandwagon's model makes Athletic Club a 54% favorite (Athletic Club −0.5); Kalshi prices them at 67%.
Espanyol vs Athletic Club model odds and win probability
Axle gives Athletic Club a 54% chance to win, with a 26% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every La Liga marketEach bar is the chance that Athletic Club win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 54%.
The largest gap is 13 points: Kalshi has Athletic Club at 67%, Axle at 54%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has Athletic Club
All La Liga ratings| ESP | ATH | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1394 14th of 20 | 1445 7th of 20 |
| Record | 3-6-3 | 4-3-4 |
| Last 5 games | 1-2-2 | 2-1-2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 3 | 2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | ATH win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:58 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:05 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:59 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 2:29 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 12:14 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 9:59 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 54% | — |
Espanyol vs Athletic Club odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every La Liga marketKalshi prices Athletic Club at 67%, Polymarket at 65% (2 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 54%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | ESP | Draw | ATH | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 13% | 20% | 67% | ||
| Polymarket | 14% | 21% | 65% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 20% | 26% | 54% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Espanyol vs Athletic Club prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Athletic Club a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 54% chance to win and a 26% chance of a draw. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: Athletic Club 1445 (7th of 20), Espanyol 1394 (14th). The Athletic Club are 4-3-4; the Espanyol are 3-6-3. The Athletic Club have won 2 of their last 5; the Espanyol 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Athletic Club won 2, the Espanyol 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Espanyol
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Deportivo | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Villarreal | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Racing Santander | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Atlético Madrid | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Málaga | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Athletic Club
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club at Espanyol | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Espanyol at Athletic Club | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Athletic Club at Espanyol | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Espanyol at Athletic Club | 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Athletic Club at Espanyol | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Espanyol at Athletic Club | 1–0 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Espanyol: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Athletic Club: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Espanyol3-6-3 13th
- Espanyol rating1394 14th of 20, 12 games
- Athletic Club4-3-4 7th
- Athletic Club rating1445 7th of 20, 11 games
More La Liga games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Espanyol 3-6-3
La Liga · 13th
No stances yet today on $ESPANYOL: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Espanyol bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Athletic Club 4-3-4
La Liga · 7th
No stances yet today on $ATHLETIC: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Athletic Club bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Espanyol at Athletic Club
Sign in to post a take on $ESPANYOLATHLETIC261120: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In La Liga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Athletic Club 54% to win, draw 26%. Projected score Athletic Club 1.6, Espanyol 0.9; spread Athletic Club −0.5, total 2.5. Kalshi 67%, Polymarket 65% for Athletic Club. Espanyol at Athletic Club, Fri, Nov 20, 3:00 PM ET.