Real Sociedad vs Racing Santander prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Real Sociedad at Racing Santander: Bandwagon's model makes Real Sociedad a 38% favorite (even); Kalshi prices them at 47%.
Real Sociedad vs Racing Santander model odds and win probability
Axle gives Real Sociedad a 38% chance to win, with a 29% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every La Liga marketEach bar is the chance that Real Sociedad win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 38%.
The largest gap is 9 points: Kalshi has Real Sociedad at 47%, Axle at 38%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Real Sociedad
All La Liga ratings| RSO | RAC | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1455 6th of 20 | 1380 18th of 20 |
| Record | 7-4-1 | 4-6-2 |
| Last 5 games | 4-1 | 2-2-1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record and last 5 results are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | RAC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 33% | — |
Real Sociedad vs Racing Santander odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every La Liga marketKalshi prices Real Sociedad at 47%, Polymarket at 46% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 38%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | RSO | Draw | RAC | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 47% | 23% | 30% | ||
| Polymarket | 46% | 23% | 31% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 38% | 29% | 33% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Real Sociedad vs Racing Santander prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Real Sociedad the favorite, with a 38% chance to win and a 29% chance of a draw; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: Racing Santander 1380 (18th of 20), Real Sociedad 1455 (6th). The Racing Santander are 4-6-2; the Real Sociedad are 7-4-1. The Racing Santander have won 2 of their last 5; the Real Sociedad 4 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Real Sociedad
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Rayo Vallecano | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Athletic Club | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Levante | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Málaga | W 5–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Deportivo | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup |
Racing Santander
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Real Sociedad: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Racing Santander: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Real Sociedad7-4-1 5th
- Real Sociedad rating1455 6th of 20, 12 games
- Racing Santander4-6-2 10th
- Racing Santander rating1380 18th of 20, 12 games
More La Liga games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Real Sociedad 7-4-1
La Liga · 5th
No stances yet today on $REALSOCIEDAD: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Real Sociedad bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Racing Santander 4-6-2
La Liga · 10th
No stances yet today on $RACING: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Racing Santander bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Real Sociedad at Racing Santander
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In La Liga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Real Sociedad 38% to win, draw 29%. Projected score Real Sociedad 1.8, Racing Santander 1.7; spread even, total 3.5. Kalshi 47%, Polymarket 46% for Real Sociedad. Real Sociedad at Racing Santander, Sun, Nov 22, 10:15 AM ET.