Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Valencia at Rayo Vallecano: Bandwagon's model makes Rayo Vallecano a 49% favorite (Rayo Vallecano −0.5); Kalshi prices them at 49%.
Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano model odds and win probability
Axle gives Rayo Vallecano a 49% chance to win, with a 27% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every La Liga marketEach bar is the chance that Rayo Vallecano win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 49%.
All 3 sources have Rayo Vallecano at 49%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Rayo Vallecano
All La Liga ratings| VAL | RAY | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1405 12th of 20 | 1428 9th of 20 |
| Record | 2-7-3 | 3-5-3 |
| Last 5 games | 1-2-2 | 1-2-2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | RAY win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:58 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:13 PM ET | 49% | −2 |
| Nov 8, 5:05 AM ET | 51% | — |
Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every La Liga marketKalshi prices Rayo Vallecano at 49%, Polymarket at 49%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 49%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | VAL | Draw | RAY | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 24% | 27% | 49% | ||
| Polymarket | 24% | 27% | 49% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 24% | 27% | 49% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Rayo Vallecano a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 49% chance to win and a 27% chance of a draw. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: Rayo Vallecano 1428 (9th of 20), Valencia 1405 (12th). The Rayo Vallecano are 3-5-3; the Valencia are 2-7-3. The Rayo Vallecano have won 1 of their last 5; the Valencia 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Rayo Vallecano won 1, the Valencia 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Valencia
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Real Madrid | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Elche | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Villarreal | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Athletic Club | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Racing Santander | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup |
Rayo Vallecano
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Real Sociedad | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Celta Vigo | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Elche | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Getafe | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Osasuna | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano at Valencia | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Valencia at Rayo Vallecano | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Valencia at Rayo Vallecano | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Rayo Vallecano at Valencia | 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Rayo Vallecano at Valencia | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Valencia at Rayo Vallecano | 1–0 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Valencia: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Rayo Vallecano: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Valencia2-7-3 19th
- Valencia rating1405 12th of 20, 12 games
- Rayo Vallecano3-5-3 14th
- Rayo Vallecano rating1428 9th of 20, 11 games
More La Liga games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Valencia 2-7-3
La Liga · 19th
No stances yet today on $VALENCIA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Valencia bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Rayo Vallecano 3-5-3
La Liga · 14th
No stances yet today on $RAYO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Rayo Vallecano bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Valencia at Rayo Vallecano
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In La Liga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Rayo Vallecano 49% to win, draw 27%. Projected score Rayo Vallecano 1.5, Valencia 1.0; spread Rayo Vallecano −0.5, total 2.5. Kalshi 49%, Polymarket 49% for Rayo Vallecano. Valencia at Rayo Vallecano, Sat, Nov 21, 10:15 AM ET.