Valencia at Elche is still 0-0 in the 19th minute, and the model has Elche at 47 percent to Valencia's 53. No crowd picks are in yet, so there is no crowd number to set against it.
LaLiga · · Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero · every La Liga line
Valencia vs Elche: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scoreValencia 1, Elche 0 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerElche 47%
- Pregame Projected scoreElche 1.8, Valencia 1.3
- Model spreadElche −0.5 total 3
- Margin1 projected 0.5
- Total1 projected 3
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Valencia or Elche: the bandwagon
Axle 25–47Market –
FinalPregame: ELC 61%Baseline: ELC 46.3% (−14.5)Big swing: 43.2 ptsClutch window: 45:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| VAL | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| ELC | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
VAL 30.9%ELC 69.1%
Valencia at Elche win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to VAL−4.9 points for ELC over the last 10:00
Big swing43.2 ptstoward VAL at 70:00 of game time
Clutch window45:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineELC 46.3%game average, −14.5 points from the pregame 60.8%
Valencia vs Elche live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | VAL | ELC |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | VAL30.9% | ELC69.1% |
| Shots | VAL5 | ELC16 |
| Shots on target | VAL3 | ELC3 |
| Corners | VAL2 | ELC6 |
| Passes completed | VAL222/280 | ELC558/618 |
| Saves | VAL3 | ELC2 |
| Fouls | VAL15 | ELC9 |
| Offsides | VAL6 | ELC2 |
| Yellow cards | VAL2 | ELC3 |
| Red cards | VAL0 | ELC0 |
Valencia vs Elche team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | VAL | ELC |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAL1 | ELC0 |
| Average win probability | VAL54% | ELC46% |
| Longest scoring run | VAL+1 | ELC+0 |
| Time leading | VAL20:00 | ELC0:00 |
Valencia vs Elche odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 1, 10:04 AM ET
Valencia25%
Win chanceElche47%
SpreadELC −0.5closing model spread
Total3
Moneyline+294away / +261draw / +113homeaway / draw / home
Line movementELC win chance, 11 stored lines
−4 pts for ELC between Oct 29 and Nov 1
57%41%
Oct 29Oct 30Nov 1
Every stored line
| Stored | ELC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 10:04 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:04 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 1:16 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:56 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 5:55 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 47% | −4 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 51% | — |
- Ratings
- ELC 1410 · VAL 1401
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Nov 1, 10:04 AM ET · 2026-11-01 15:04 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Valencia 1, Elche 0. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In La Liga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 1, 2:58 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
ValenciaElche
Neutrals only–
ValenciaElche
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Elche–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Valencia vs Elche prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Elche a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 47% chance to win and a 28% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Elche 1397 (13th of 20), Valencia 1414 (10th). The Elche are 2-5-4; the Valencia are 2-6-3. The Elche have won 2 of their last 5; the Valencia 1 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Elche won 1, the Valencia 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Valencia
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Elche | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Villarreal | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Athletic Club | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Racing Santander | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Real Sociedad | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup |
Elche
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Valencia | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Rayo Vallecano | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Villarreal | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Celta Vigo | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Espanyol | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
Injuries
Valencia: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Elche: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Valencia2-6-3 19th
- Valencia rating1414 10th of 20, 11 games
- Elche2-5-4 17th
- Elche rating1397 13th of 20, 11 games
Valencia 2-6-3
La Liga · 19th
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $VALENCIA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $VALENCIA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $VALENCIA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $VALENCIA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Valencia bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Elche 2-5-4
La Liga · 17th
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $ELCHE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $ELCHE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $ELCHE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $ELCHE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Elche bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Valencia at Elche
Sign in to post a take on $VALENCIAELCHE261101: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.