Villarreal vs Barcelona prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Villarreal at Barcelona: Bandwagon's model makes Barcelona a 79% favorite (Barcelona −1.5); Kalshi prices them at 80%.
Villarreal vs Barcelona model odds and win probability
Axle gives Barcelona a 79% chance to win, by about 2 goals, with a 14% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every La Liga marketEach bar is the chance that Barcelona win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 79%.
The largest gap is 1 point: Kalshi has Barcelona at 80%, Axle at 79%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Barcelona
All La Liga ratings| VIL | BAR | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1497 5th of 20 | 1712 1st of 20 |
| Record | 4-5-3 | 11-1 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 2 | 4 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | BAR win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 79% | — |
Villarreal vs Barcelona odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every La Liga marketKalshi prices Barcelona at 80%, Polymarket at 80%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 79%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | VIL | Draw | BAR | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 9% | 11% | 80% | ||
| Polymarket | 8% | 12% | 80% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 7% | 14% | 79% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Villarreal vs Barcelona prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Barcelona a 1.5-point favorite at home, with a 79% chance to win and a 14% chance of a draw. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: Barcelona 1712 (1st of 20), Villarreal 1497 (5th). The Barcelona are 11-1; the Villarreal are 4-5-3. The Barcelona have won 3 of their last 5; the Villarreal 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Barcelona won 4, the Villarreal 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Villarreal
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Getafe | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Paris Saint-Germain | L 0–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Espanyol | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Valencia | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Liverpool | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup |
Barcelona
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Atlético Madrid | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Aston Villa | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Alavés | W 6–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Real Madrid | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Paris Saint-Germain | L 2–4 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal at Barcelona | 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Barcelona at Villarreal | 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Villarreal at Barcelona | 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Barcelona at Villarreal | 5–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Villarreal at Barcelona | 5–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Barcelona at Villarreal | 4–3 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Villarreal: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Barcelona: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Villarreal4-5-3 8th
- Villarreal rating1497 5th of 20, 12 games
- Barcelona11-1 1st
- Barcelona rating1712 1st of 20, 12 games
More La Liga games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Villarreal 4-5-3
La Liga · 8th
No stances yet today on $VILLARREAL: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Villarreal bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Barcelona 11-1
La Liga · 1st
No stances yet today on $BARCELONA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Barcelona bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Villarreal at Barcelona
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In La Liga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Barcelona 79% to win, draw 14%. Projected score Barcelona 2.6, Villarreal 0.9; spread Barcelona −1.5, total 3.5. Kalshi 80%, Polymarket 80% for Barcelona. Villarreal at Barcelona, Sun, Nov 22, 8:00 AM ET.