Deportivo vs Alavés prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Deportivo at Alavés: Bandwagon's model makes Alavés a 42% favorite (Alavés −0.5); Kalshi prices them at 46%.
Deportivo vs Alavés model odds and win probability
Axle gives Alavés a 42% chance to win, with a 29% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every La Liga marketEach bar is the chance that Alavés win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 42%.
The largest gap is 4 points: Kalshi has Alavés at 46%, Axle at 42%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has Alavés
All La Liga ratings| DEP | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1412 10th of 20 | 1396 13th of 20 |
| Record | 3-3-6 | 3-5-4 |
| Last 5 games | 1-2-2 | 0-3-2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record and last 5 results are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | ALA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:58 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:05 AM ET | 42% | — |
Deportivo vs Alavés odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every La Liga marketKalshi prices Alavés at 46%, Polymarket at 46%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 42%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | DEP | Draw | ALA | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 27% | 27% | 46% | ||
| Polymarket | 26% | 28% | 46% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 29% | 29% | 42% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Deportivo vs Alavés prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Alavés a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 42% chance to win and a 29% chance of a draw. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: Alavés 1396 (13th of 20), Deportivo 1412 (10th). The Alavés are 3-5-4; the Deportivo are 3-3-6. The Alavés have won 0 of their last 5; the Deportivo 1 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Deportivo
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Espanyol | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Osasuna | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Atlético Madrid | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Levante | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Real Sociedad | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup |
Alavés
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Sevilla | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Barcelona | L 1–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Málaga | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Celta Vigo | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Atlético Madrid | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Deportivo: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Alavés: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Deportivo3-3-6 9th
- Deportivo rating1412 10th of 20, 12 games
- Alavés3-5-4 12th
- Alavés rating1396 13th of 20, 12 games
More La Liga games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Deportivo 3-3-6
La Liga · 9th
No stances yet today on $DEPORTIVO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Deportivo bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Alavés 3-5-4
La Liga · 12th
No stances yet today on $ALAVES: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Alavés bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Deportivo at Alavés
Sign in to post a take on $DEPORTIVOALAVES261121: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In La Liga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Alavés 42% to win, draw 29%. Projected score Alavés 1.4, Deportivo 1.1; spread Alavés −0.5, total 2.5. Kalshi 46%, Polymarket 46% for Alavés. Deportivo at Alavés, Sat, Nov 21, 8:00 AM ET.