Nevada Wolf Pack vs UNLV Rebels prediction, odds and picks, November 28, 2026
Nevada at UNLV: Bandwagon's model makes UNLV a 79% favorite (UNLV −13.5).
Nevada Wolf Pack vs UNLV Rebels odds and win probability
Axle gives UNLV a 79% chance to win, by about 13 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has UNLV
All CFB ratings| NEV | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1388 107th of 138 | 1525 60th of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 0 | 4 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | UNLV win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 79% | −1 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 80% | +1 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 79% | — |
Nevada Wolf Pack vs UNLV Rebels prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Rebels a 13.5-point favorite at home, with a 79% chance to win. The model total is 51. Ratings: Rebels 1525 (60th of 138), Wolf Pack 1388 (107th). The Rebels have won 3 of their last 5; the Wolf Pack 2 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Rebels won 4, the Wolf Pack 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Nevada Wolf Pack
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs New Mexico Lobos | L 3–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UCLA Bruins | L 0–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San José State Spartans | W 28–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| at North Dakota State Bison | L 17–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UTEP Miners | W 30–13 | – | – | matchup |
UNLV Rebels
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Wyoming Cowboys | L 35–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Northern Illinois Huskies | W 31–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Air Force Falcons | L 31–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs North Dakota State Bison | W 13–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs California Golden Bears | W 39–31 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV Rebels at Nevada Wolf Pack | 42–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| Nevada Wolf Pack at UNLV Rebels | 14–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| UNLV Rebels at Nevada Wolf Pack | 45–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| Nevada Wolf Pack at UNLV Rebels | 22–27 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Nevada Wolf Pack: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
UNLV Rebels: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Wolf Pack– 7th · L2
- Wolf Pack rating1388 107th of 138, 8 games
- Rebels– 5th · L1
- Rebels rating1525 60th of 138, 9 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · 7th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $NEV: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Nevada Wolf Pack bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 5th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $UNLV: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UNLV Rebels bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Nevada Wolf Pack at UNLV Rebels
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.