NC State Wolfpack vs North Carolina Tar Heels prediction, odds and picks, November 28, 2026
NC State at North Carolina: Bandwagon's model makes North Carolina a 66% favorite (North Carolina −7).
NC State Wolfpack vs North Carolina Tar Heels odds and win probability
Axle gives North Carolina a 66% chance to win, by about 7 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has North Carolina
All CFB ratings| NCSU | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1471 78th of 138 | 1513 61st of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 4 | 0 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | UNC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 66% | — |
NC State Wolfpack vs North Carolina Tar Heels prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Tar Heels a 7-point favorite at home, with a 66% chance to win. The model total is 53. Ratings: Tar Heels 1513 (61st of 138), Wolfpack 1471 (78th). The Tar Heels have won 3 of their last 5; the Wolfpack 2 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Tar Heels won 0, the Wolfpack 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
NC State Wolfpack
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Duke Blue Devils | L 3–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs California Golden Bears | W 31–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Stanford Cardinal | L 28–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons | L 14–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Louisville Cardinals | W 31–28 | – | – | matchup |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at UConn Huskies | W 38–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Miami Hurricanes | L 35–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Syracuse Orange | L 30–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Duke Blue Devils | W 24–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Pittsburgh Panthers | W 21–17 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels at NC State Wolfpack | 19–42 | – | – | matchup | |
| NC State Wolfpack at North Carolina Tar Heels | 35–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| North Carolina Tar Heels at NC State Wolfpack | 20–39 | – | – | matchup | |
| NC State Wolfpack at North Carolina Tar Heels | 30–27 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
NC State Wolfpack: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
North Carolina Tar Heels: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Wolfpack– 13th · L1
- Wolfpack rating1471 78th of 138, 8 games
- Tar Heels– 9th · W1
- Tar Heels rating1513 61st of 138, 8 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · 13th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $NCSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the NC State Wolfpack bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 9th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $UNC: the share of the crowd ▲ on the North Carolina Tar Heels bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on NC State Wolfpack at North Carolina Tar Heels
Sign in to post a take on $NCSUUNC261128: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: North Carolina 66% to win. Projected score North Carolina 30, NC State 23; spread North Carolina −7, total 53. NC State Wolfpack at North Carolina Tar Heels, Sat, Nov 28, 12:00 AM ET.