Duke Blue Devils vs NC State Wolfpack prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerDuke 63%
- Projected scoreDuke 28, NC State 23
- Model spreadDuke −5 total 51
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Duke Blue Devils or NC State Wolfpack: the bandwagon
Axle 63–37Market 64–36
Duke Blue Devils at NC State Wolfpack win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Duke Blue Devils vs NC State Wolfpack live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Duke Blue Devils vs NC State Wolfpack team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | DUKE | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DUKE– | NCSU– |
| Average win probability | DUKE– | NCSU– |
| Longest scoring run | DUKE– | NCSU– |
| Time leading | DUKE– | NCSU– |
Duke Blue Devils vs NC State Wolfpack model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | NCSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:32 PM ET | 37% | −3 |
| Oct 31, 3:26 PM ET | 40% | +3 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 37% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 38% | — |
- Ratings
- NCSU 1506 · DUKE 1636
- Home spread
- +5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Duke vs NC State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Blue Devils at 65%, Polymarket at 64% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 63%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | DUKE | NCSU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 65% | 36% | ||
| Polymarket | 64% | 37% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 63% | 37% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Duke Blue Devils vs NC State Wolfpack prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Blue Devils a 5-point favorite, with a 63% chance to win. The model total is 51. Ratings: Wolfpack 1506 (68th of 138), Blue Devils 1636 (25th). The Wolfpack have won 3 of their last 5; the Blue Devils 3 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Wolfpack won 0, the Blue Devils 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Duke Blue Devils
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Boston College Eagles | W 47–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Virginia Cavaliers | W 19–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs North Carolina Tar Heels | L 20–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | L 25–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Stanford Cardinal | W 35–7 | – | – | matchup |
NC State Wolfpack
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs California Golden Bears | W 31–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Stanford Cardinal | L 28–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons | L 14–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Louisville Cardinals | W 31–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs App State Mountaineers | W 41–31 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC State Wolfpack at Duke Blue Devils | 33–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| Duke Blue Devils at NC State Wolfpack | 29–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| NC State Wolfpack at Duke Blue Devils | 3–24 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Duke Blue Devils: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
NC State Wolfpack: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Blue Devils– 5th · W2
- Blue Devils rating1636 25th of 138, 7 games
- Wolfpack– 10th · W1
- Wolfpack rating1506 68th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 5th · streak W2
No stances yet today on $DUKE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Duke Blue Devils bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 10th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $NCSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the NC State Wolfpack bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Duke Blue Devils at NC State Wolfpack
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Model: Duke 63% to win. Projected score Duke 28, NC State 23; spread Duke −5, total 51. Kalshi 65%, Polymarket 64% for Duke. Duke Blue Devils at NC State Wolfpack, Sat, Nov 7, 12:30 PM ET.