NC State leads 6-0 with 13:29 left in the first quarter, and the model has the Wolfpack at 76 percent. California has not scored yet, so the early read is all Raleigh for now.
FBS · · Carter–Finley Stadium · every NCAA Division I FBS football line
California Golden Bears vs NC State Wolfpack: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreCalifornia 10, NC State 31 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerNC State 76%
- Pregame Projected scoreNC State 33, California 22
- Model spreadNC State −11 total 55
- Margin21 projected 11
- Total41 projected 55
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
California Golden Bears or NC State Wolfpack: the bandwagon
Axle 24–76Market 27–73
FinalPregame: NCSU 76%Baseline: NCSU 86.6% (+11.1)Big swing: 16.1 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| NCSU | 7 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 31 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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California Golden Bears at NC State Wolfpack win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.1 points for NCSU over the last 5:00
Big swing16.1 ptstoward NCSU at 32:04 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineNCSU 86.6%game average, +11.1 points from the pregame 75.6%
California Golden Bears vs NC State Wolfpack live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | CAL | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | CAL269 | NCSU327 |
| First downs | CAL15 | NCSU19 |
| 3rd down | CAL5/18 | NCSU7/15 |
| 4th down | CAL1/3 | NCSU0/0 |
| Turnovers | CAL1 | NCSU1 |
| Penalties-yards | CAL8-81 | NCSU5-48 |
| Time of possession | CAL31:29 | NCSU28:31 |
California Golden Bears vs NC State Wolfpack team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | CAL | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAL10 | NCSU31 |
| Average win probability | CAL13% | NCSU87% |
| Longest scoring run | CAL+10 | NCSU+21 |
| Time leading | CAL0:00 | NCSU52:36 |
California Golden Bears vs NC State Wolfpack model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET
Golden Bears24%
Win chanceWolfpack76%
SpreadNCSU −11closing model spread
Total55
Moneyline+310away / −310homeaway / home
Line movementNCSU win chance, 17 stored lines
−4 pts for NCSU between Oct 28 and Oct 31
85%70%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | NCSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 76% | −4 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 80% | — |
- Ratings
- NCSU 1485 · CAL 1380
- Home spread
- −11
- Stored
- Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET · 2026-10-31 19:21 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: California Golden Bears 10, NC State Wolfpack 31. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 31, 11:30 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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Golden BearsWolfpack
Neutrals only–
Golden BearsWolfpack
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Wolfpack–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
California vs NC State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Wolfpack at 73% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 74% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 76% when last read, ; the two venues were 1 point apart at those reads.
| Source | CAL | NCSU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 27% | 73% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 26% | 74% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 24% | 76% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, NCSU: −3Polymarket minus model, NCSU: −2
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
California Golden Bears vs NC State Wolfpack prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Wolfpack a 11-point favorite at home, with a 76% chance to win. The model total is 55. Ratings: Wolfpack 1506 (68th of 138), Golden Bears 1360 (117th). The Wolfpack have won 3 of their last 5; the Golden Bears 1 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Wolfpack won 1, the Golden Bears 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
California Golden Bears
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at NC State Wolfpack | L 10–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at SMU Mustangs | L 20–59 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons | L 7–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Virginia Tech Hokies | W 25–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UNLV Rebels | L 31–39 | – | – | matchup |
NC State Wolfpack
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs California Golden Bears | W 31–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Stanford Cardinal | L 28–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons | L 14–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Louisville Cardinals | W 31–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs App State Mountaineers | W 41–31 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC State Wolfpack at California Golden Bears | 24–23 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
California Golden Bears: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
NC State Wolfpack: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Golden Bears– 16th · L3
- Golden Bears rating1360 117th of 138, 8 games
- Wolfpack– 10th · W1
- Wolfpack rating1506 68th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 16th · streak L3
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $CAL
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $CAL
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $CAL
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $CAL: the share of the crowd ▲ on the California Golden Bears bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 10th · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $NCSU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $NCSU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $NCSU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $NCSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the NC State Wolfpack bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on California Golden Bears at NC State Wolfpack
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Final: California 10, NC State 31. Bandwagon's model had the NC State at 76% and projected NC State 33, California 22; spread NC State −11, total 55. Last read: Kalshi 73%, Polymarket 74% for NC State.