Kent State Golden Flashes vs Bowling Green Falcons prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerBowling Green 69%
- Projected scoreBowling Green 28, Kent State 21
- Model spreadBowling Green −8 total 49
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Kent State Golden Flashes or Bowling Green Falcons: the bandwagon
Axle 31–69Market 38–62
Kent State Golden Flashes at Bowling Green Falcons win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Kent State Golden Flashes vs Bowling Green Falcons live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Kent State Golden Flashes vs Bowling Green Falcons team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | KENT | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | KENT– | BGSU– |
| Average win probability | KENT– | BGSU– |
| Longest scoring run | KENT– | BGSU– |
| Time leading | KENT– | BGSU– |
Kent State Golden Flashes vs Bowling Green Falcons model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | BGSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 69% | −2 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 71% | +7 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 64% | +5 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 59% | — |
- Ratings
- BGSU 1351 · KENT 1294
- Home spread
- −8
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Kent State vs Bowling Green odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Falcons at 59%, Polymarket at 65% (6 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 69%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | KENT | BGSU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 41% | 59% | ||
| Polymarket | 35% | 65% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 31% | 69% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Kent State Golden Flashes vs Bowling Green Falcons prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Falcons a 8-point favorite at home, with a 69% chance to win. The model total is 49. Ratings: Falcons 1351 (121st of 138), Golden Flashes 1294 (129th). The Falcons have won 2 of their last 5; the Golden Flashes 1 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Falcons won 2, the Golden Flashes 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Kent State Golden Flashes
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Sacramento State Hornets | L 10–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Akron Zips | W 35–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| at South Florida Bulls | L 2–29 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Western Michigan Broncos | L 7–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ohio Bobcats | L 10–13 | – | – | matchup |
Bowling Green Falcons
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Western Michigan Broncos | L 10–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Buffalo Bulls | L 24–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ball State Cardinals | L 31–32 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sacramento State Hornets | W 38–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Miami (OH) RedHawks | W 24–20 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green Falcons at Kent State Golden Flashes | 21–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| Kent State Golden Flashes at Bowling Green Falcons | 6–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| Bowling Green Falcons at Kent State Golden Flashes | 49–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| Kent State Golden Flashes at Bowling Green Falcons | 40–6 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Kent State Golden Flashes: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Bowling Green Falcons: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Golden Flashes– 10th · L1
- Golden Flashes rating1294 129th of 138, 8 games
- Falcons– 11th · L3
- Falcons rating1351 121st of 138, 8 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 10th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $KENT: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Kent State Golden Flashes bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 11th · streak L3
No stances yet today on $BGSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Bowling Green Falcons bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Kent State Golden Flashes at Bowling Green Falcons
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Model: Bowling Green 69% to win. Projected score Bowling Green 28, Kent State 21; spread Bowling Green −8, total 49. Kalshi 59%, Polymarket 65% for Bowling Green. Kent State Golden Flashes at Bowling Green Falcons, Tue, Nov 10, 7:00 PM ET.