Western Michigan opens at home with the model giving the Broncos an 85 percent chance, while the score is still 0-0 and the crowd hasn't weighed in yet. Bowling Green's fans will say it's early, and they're right about that.
FBS · · Waldo Stadium · every NCAA Division I FBS football line
Bowling Green Falcons vs Western Michigan Broncos: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreBowling Green 10, Western Michigan 23 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerWestern Michigan 85%
- Pregame Projected scoreWestern Michigan 34, Bowling Green 17
- Model spreadWestern Michigan −17 total 50
- Margin13 projected 17
- Total33 projected 50
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bowling Green Falcons or Western Michigan Broncos: the bandwagon
Axle 15–85Market 16–84
FinalPregame: WMU 85%Baseline: WMU 86.4% (+1.9)Big swing: 23.4 ptsClutch window: 1:33
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BGSU | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| WMU | 7 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 23 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Bowling Green Falcons at Western Michigan Broncos win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.7 points for WMU over the last 5:00
Big swing23.4 ptstoward WMU at 11:48 of game time
Clutch window1:33within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineWMU 86.4%game average, +1.9 points from the pregame 84.6%
Bowling Green Falcons vs Western Michigan Broncos live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | BGSU | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | BGSU274 | WMU336 |
| First downs | BGSU16 | WMU15 |
| 3rd down | BGSU7/16 | WMU4/14 |
| 4th down | BGSU0/1 | WMU0/0 |
| Turnovers | BGSU3 | WMU2 |
| Penalties-yards | BGSU5-41 | WMU2-20 |
| Time of possession | BGSU32:18 | WMU27:42 |
Bowling Green Falcons vs Western Michigan Broncos team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | BGSU | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BGSU10 | WMU23 |
| Average win probability | BGSU14% | WMU86% |
| Longest scoring run | BGSU+7 | WMU+14 |
| Time leading | BGSU3:48 | WMU36:27 |
Bowling Green Falcons vs Western Michigan Broncos model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET
Falcons15%
Win chanceBroncos85%
SpreadWMU −17closing model spread
Total50
Moneyline+550away / −550homeaway / home
Line movementWMU win chance, 15 stored lines
−5 pts for WMU between Oct 28 and Oct 31
95%79%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | WMU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 85% | −5 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 90% | — |
- Ratings
- WMU 1549 · BGSU 1363
- Home spread
- −17
- Stored
- Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET · 2026-10-31 19:11 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Bowling Green Falcons 10, Western Michigan Broncos 23. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 31, 11:30 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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FalconsBroncos
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FalconsBroncos
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Broncos–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Bowling Green vs Western Michigan odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Broncos at 84% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 85% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 85% when last read, ; the two venues were 1 point apart at those reads.
| Source | BGSU | WMU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 16% | 84% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 16% | 85% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 15% | 85% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, WMU: 0Polymarket minus model, WMU: 0
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Bowling Green Falcons vs Western Michigan Broncos prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Broncos a 17-point favorite at home, with a 85% chance to win. The model total is 50. Ratings: Broncos 1561 (46th of 138), Falcons 1351 (121st). The Broncos have won 4 of their last 5; the Falcons 2 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Broncos won 0, the Falcons 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Bowling Green Falcons
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Western Michigan Broncos | L 10–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Buffalo Bulls | L 24–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ball State Cardinals | L 31–32 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sacramento State Hornets | W 38–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Miami (OH) RedHawks | W 24–20 | – | – | matchup |
Western Michigan Broncos
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Bowling Green Falcons | W 23–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Toledo Rockets | L 38–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Central Michigan Chippewas | W 21–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kent State Golden Flashes | W 38–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Buffalo Bulls | W 20–17 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Michigan Broncos at Bowling Green Falcons | 13–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| Bowling Green Falcons at Western Michigan Broncos | 34–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| Western Michigan Broncos at Bowling Green Falcons | 9–13 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Bowling Green Falcons: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Western Michigan Broncos: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Falcons– 11th · L3
- Falcons rating1351 121st of 138, 8 games
- Broncos– 3rd · W1
- Broncos rating1561 46th of 138, 8 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 11th · streak L3
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $BGSU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $BGSU
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $BGSU
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No stances yet today on $BGSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Bowling Green Falcons bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 3rd · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $WMU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $WMU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $WMU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $WMU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Western Michigan Broncos bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Bowling Green Falcons at Western Michigan Broncos
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Final: Bowling Green 10, Western Michigan 23. Bandwagon's model had the Western Michigan at 85% and projected Western Michigan 34, Bowling Green 17; spread Western Michigan −17, total 50. Last read: Kalshi 84%, Polymarket 85% for Western Michigan.