Fresno State Bulldogs vs Utah State Aggies prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerFresno State 61%
- Projected scoreFresno State 26, Utah State 22
- Model spreadFresno State −4 total 47.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Fresno State Bulldogs or Utah State Aggies: the bandwagon
Axle 61–39Market 54–46
Fresno State Bulldogs at Utah State Aggies win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Fresno State Bulldogs vs Utah State Aggies live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Fresno State Bulldogs vs Utah State Aggies team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | FRES | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FRES– | USU– |
| Average win probability | FRES– | USU– |
| Longest scoring run | FRES– | USU– |
| Time leading | FRES– | USU– |
Fresno State Bulldogs vs Utah State Aggies model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | USU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 39% | −1 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:39 AM ET | 40% | −3 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 43% | +3 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 40% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 42% | — |
- Ratings
- USU 1461 · FRES 1575
- Home spread
- +4
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Fresno State vs Utah State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Bulldogs at 54%, Polymarket at 55% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 61%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | FRES | USU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 54% | 46% | ||
| Polymarket | 55% | 45% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 61% | 39% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Fresno State Bulldogs vs Utah State Aggies prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bulldogs a 4-point favorite, with a 61% chance to win. The model total is 47.5. Ratings: Aggies 1461 (82nd of 138), Bulldogs 1575 (40th). The Aggies have won 3 of their last 5; the Bulldogs 3 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Aggies won 1, the Bulldogs 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Fresno State Bulldogs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Oregon State Beavers | W 38–22 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Diego State Aztecs | L 23–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Boise State Broncos | L 31–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington State Cougars | W 26–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Rice Owls | W 38–24 | – | – | matchup |
Utah State Aggies
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Colorado State Rams | W 31–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas State Bobcats | L 17–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Washington State Cougars | W 17–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Boise State Broncos | L 18–37 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Troy Trojans | W 21–10 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah State Aggies at Fresno State Bulldogs | 28–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| Fresno State Bulldogs at Utah State Aggies | 37–32 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Fresno State Bulldogs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Utah State Aggies: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bulldogs– 3rd · W1
- Bulldogs rating1575 40th of 138, 8 games
- Aggies– 6th · W1
- Aggies rating1461 82nd of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 3rd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $FRES: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Fresno State Bulldogs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 6th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $USU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Utah State Aggies bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Fresno State 61% to win. Projected score Fresno State 26, Utah State 22; spread Fresno State −4, total 47.5. Kalshi 54%, Polymarket 55% for Fresno State. Fresno State Bulldogs at Utah State Aggies, Sat, Nov 7, 9:30 PM ET.