Fresno State opens at home with a 72 percent model edge, and the score is still 0-0 with 12:50 left in the first. The crowd has not weighed in yet, so the Bulldogs' fans get the first word for once.
FBS · · Valley Children's Stadium · every NCAA Division I FBS football line
Oregon State Beavers vs Fresno State Bulldogs: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreOregon State 22, Fresno State 38 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerFresno State 72%
- Pregame Projected scoreFresno State 32, Oregon State 23
- Model spreadFresno State −9 total 55
- Margin16 projected 9
- Total60 projected 55
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Oregon State Beavers or Fresno State Bulldogs: the bandwagon
Axle 28–72Market 68–32
FinalPregame: FRES 72%Baseline: FRES 86.4% (+14.7)Big swing: 23.2 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORST | 3 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 22 |
| FRES | 7 | 14 | 17 | 0 | 38 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Oregon State Beavers at Fresno State Bulldogs win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for FRES over the last 5:00
Big swing23.2 ptstoward FRES at 18:50 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineFRES 86.4%game average, +14.7 points from the pregame 71.6%
Oregon State Beavers vs Fresno State Bulldogs live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | ORST | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | ORST450 | FRES392 |
| First downs | ORST25 | FRES15 |
| 3rd down | ORST6/17 | FRES5/11 |
| 4th down | ORST2/5 | FRES0/0 |
| Turnovers | ORST2 | FRES1 |
| Penalties-yards | ORST6-30 | FRES2-17 |
| Time of possession | ORST30:49 | FRES29:11 |
Oregon State Beavers vs Fresno State Bulldogs team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | ORST | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ORST22 | FRES38 |
| Average win probability | ORST14% | FRES86% |
| Longest scoring run | ORST+7 | FRES+14 |
| Time leading | ORST4:54 | FRES48:36 |
Oregon State Beavers vs Fresno State Bulldogs model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET
Beavers28%
Win chanceBulldogs72%
SpreadFRES −9closing model spread
Total55
Moneyline+253away / −253homeaway / home
Line movementFRES win chance, 32 stored lines
−1 pts for FRES between Oct 28 and Nov 1
78%66%
Oct 28Oct 30Nov 1
Every stored line
| Stored | FRES win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 72% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 71% | −1 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 72% | +1 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 71% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 72% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 73% | — |
- Ratings
- FRES 1554 · ORST 1479
- Home spread
- −9
- Stored
- Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET · 2026-11-01 06:14 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Oregon State Beavers 22, Fresno State Bulldogs 38. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 31, 11:30 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · 2 picks
Be the first on the bandwagon
BeaversBulldogs
Neutrals only–
BeaversBulldogs
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Bulldogs–
2 picks so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Oregon State vs Fresno State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Bulldogs at 32% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 33% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 72% when last read, ; the two venues were 1 point apart at those reads.
| Source | ORST | FRES | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 69% | 32% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 68% | 33% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 28% | 72% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, FRES: −40Polymarket minus model, FRES: −39
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Oregon State Beavers vs Fresno State Bulldogs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bulldogs a 9-point favorite at home, with a 72% chance to win. The model total is 55. Ratings: Bulldogs 1575 (40th of 138), Beavers 1457 (83rd). The Bulldogs have won 3 of their last 5; the Beavers 4 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Bulldogs won 1, the Beavers 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Oregon State Beavers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Fresno State Bulldogs | L 22–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Washington State Cougars | W 48–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Diego State Aztecs | W 66–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado State Rams | W 56–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UTEP Miners | W 33–7 | – | – | matchup |
Fresno State Bulldogs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Oregon State Beavers | W 38–22 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Diego State Aztecs | L 23–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Boise State Broncos | L 31–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington State Cougars | W 26–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Rice Owls | W 38–24 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno State Bulldogs at Oregon State Beavers | 36–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| Oregon State Beavers at Fresno State Bulldogs | 35–32 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Oregon State Beavers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Fresno State Bulldogs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Beavers– 2nd · L1
- Beavers rating1457 83rd of 138, 7 games
- Bulldogs– 3rd · W1
- Bulldogs rating1575 40th of 138, 8 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 2nd · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $ORST
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $ORST
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $ORST
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $ORST: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Oregon State Beavers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 3rd · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $FRES
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $FRES
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $FRES
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $FRES: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Fresno State Bulldogs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Oregon State Beavers at Fresno State Bulldogs
Sign in to post a take on $ORSTFRES261101: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Oregon State 22, Fresno State 38. Bandwagon's model had the Fresno State at 72% and projected Fresno State 32, Oregon State 23; spread Fresno State −9, total 55. Last read: Kalshi 32%, Polymarket 33% for Fresno State.