Fresno State Bulldogs vs Texas State Bobcats prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerTexas State 53%
- Projected scoreTexas State 29, Fresno State 28
- Model spreadTexas State −1.5 total 57
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Fresno State Bulldogs or Texas State Bobcats: the bandwagon
Axle 47–53Market 38–62
Fresno State Bulldogs at Texas State Bobcats win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Fresno State Bulldogs vs Texas State Bobcats live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Fresno State Bulldogs vs Texas State Bobcats team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | FRES | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FRES– | TXST– |
| Average win probability | FRES– | TXST– |
| Longest scoring run | FRES– | TXST– |
| Time leading | FRES– | TXST– |
Fresno State Bulldogs vs Texas State Bobcats model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | TXST win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:39 AM ET | 53% | −4 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 57% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 58% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 57% | — |
- Ratings
- TXST 1539 · FRES 1575
- Home spread
- −1.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Fresno State vs Texas State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Bobcats at 67%, Polymarket at 57% (10 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 53%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | FRES | TXST | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 33% | 67% | ||
| Polymarket | 43% | 57% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 47% | 53% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Fresno State Bulldogs vs Texas State Bobcats prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bobcats a 1.5-point favorite at home, with a 53% chance to win. The model total is 57. Ratings: Bobcats 1539 (58th of 138), Bulldogs 1575 (40th). The Bobcats have won 3 of their last 5; the Bulldogs 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Fresno State Bulldogs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Oregon State Beavers | W 38–22 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Diego State Aztecs | L 23–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Boise State Broncos | L 31–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington State Cougars | W 26–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Rice Owls | W 38–24 | – | – | matchup |
Texas State Bobcats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Boise State Broncos | L 45–46 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah State Aggies | W 20–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Colorado State Rams | W 66–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Diego State Aztecs | L 29–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs North Texas Mean Green | W 49–35 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Fresno State Bulldogs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Texas State Bobcats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bulldogs– 3rd · W1
- Bulldogs rating1575 40th of 138, 8 games
- Bobcats– 4th · L1
- Bobcats rating1539 58th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 3rd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $FRES: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Fresno State Bulldogs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 4th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $TXST: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Texas State Bobcats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Texas State 53% to win. Projected score Texas State 29, Fresno State 28; spread Texas State −1.5, total 57. Kalshi 67%, Polymarket 57% for Texas State. Fresno State Bulldogs at Texas State Bobcats, Sat, Nov 14, 4:00 PM ET.