Boise State opens at home with a model rating of 80 percent for the Broncos, while the score is still 0-0 with 13:41 left in the first. Crowd picks haven't come in yet, so the fans have not yet said what they think.
FBS · · Albertsons Stadium · every NCAA Division I FBS football line
Texas State Bobcats vs Boise State Broncos: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreTexas State 45, Boise State 46 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerBoise State 80%
- Pregame Projected scoreBoise State 36, Texas State 22
- Model spreadBoise State −14 total 57
- Margin1 projected 14
- Total91 projected 57
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Texas State Bobcats or Boise State Broncos: the bandwagon
Axle 20–80Market 22–79
FinalPregame: BOIS 80%Baseline: BOIS 77.9% (−2.5)Big swing: 57.5 ptsClutch window: 12:17
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXST | 0 | 3 | 22 | 20 | 45 |
| BOIS | 7 | 21 | 0 | 18 | 46 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Texas State Bobcats at Boise State Broncos win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to BOIS+81.3 points for BOIS over the last 5:00
Big swing57.5 ptstoward BOIS at 57:20 of game time
Clutch window12:17within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineBOIS 77.9%game average, −2.5 points from the pregame 80.5%
Texas State Bobcats vs Boise State Broncos live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | TXST | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | TXST429 | BOIS484 |
| First downs | TXST16 | BOIS29 |
| 3rd down | TXST6/15 | BOIS9/16 |
| 4th down | TXST1/2 | BOIS3/3 |
| Turnovers | TXST1 | BOIS2 |
| Penalties-yards | TXST8-61 | BOIS5-40 |
| Time of possession | TXST22:59 | BOIS37:01 |
Texas State Bobcats vs Boise State Broncos team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | TXST | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TXST45 | BOIS46 |
| Average win probability | TXST22% | BOIS78% |
| Longest scoring run | TXST+58 | BOIS+21 |
| Time leading | TXST10:41 | BOIS41:02 |
Texas State Bobcats vs Boise State Broncos model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET
Bobcats20%
Win chanceBroncos80%
SpreadBOIS −14closing model spread
Total57
Moneyline+413away / −413homeaway / home
Line movementBOIS win chance, 31 stored lines
−3 pts for BOIS between Oct 28 and Oct 31
89%75%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | BOIS win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 80% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 81% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 80% | −3 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 83% | — |
- Ratings
- BOIS 1687 · TXST 1543
- Home spread
- −14
- Stored
- Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET · 2026-11-01 03:34 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
- Last move
- home 81% → 80%
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Texas State Bobcats 45, Boise State Broncos 46. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 31, 11:30 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
BobcatsBroncos
Neutrals only–
BobcatsBroncos
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Broncos–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Texas State vs Boise State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Broncos at 79% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 79% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 80% when last read, .
| Source | TXST | BOIS | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 22% | 79% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 22% | 79% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 20% | 80% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, BOIS: −2Polymarket minus model, BOIS: −2
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Texas State Bobcats vs Boise State Broncos prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Broncos a 14-point favorite at home, with a 80% chance to win. The model total is 57. Ratings: Broncos 1691 (13th of 138), Bobcats 1539 (58th). The Broncos have won 5 of their last 5; the Bobcats 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Texas State Bobcats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Boise State Broncos | L 45–46 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah State Aggies | W 20–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Colorado State Rams | W 66–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Diego State Aztecs | L 29–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs North Texas Mean Green | W 49–35 | – | – | matchup |
Boise State Broncos
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Texas State Bobcats | W 46–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington State Cougars | W 31–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Fresno State Bulldogs | W 38–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah State Aggies | W 37–18 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Western Michigan Broncos | W 32–7 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Texas State Bobcats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Boise State Broncos: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bobcats– 4th · L1
- Bobcats rating1539 58th of 138, 7 games
- Broncos– 1st · W7
- Broncos rating1691 13th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 4th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $TXST
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $TXST
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $TXST
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $TXST: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Texas State Bobcats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 1st · streak W7
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $BOIS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $BOIS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $BOIS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $BOIS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Boise State Broncos bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Texas State Bobcats at Boise State Broncos
Sign in to post a take on $TXSTBOIS261101: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Texas State 45, Boise State 46. Bandwagon's model had the Boise State at 80% and projected Boise State 36, Texas State 22; spread Boise State −14, total 57. Last read: Kalshi 79%, Polymarket 79% for Boise State.