Duke Blue Devils vs Miami Hurricanes prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerMiami 84%
- Projected scoreMiami 35, Duke 18
- Model spreadMiami −16 total 53
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Duke Blue Devils or Miami Hurricanes: the bandwagon
Axle 16–84Market 18–82
Duke Blue Devils at Miami Hurricanes win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Duke Blue Devils vs Miami Hurricanes live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Duke Blue Devils vs Miami Hurricanes team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | DUKE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DUKE– | MIA– |
| Average win probability | DUKE– | MIA– |
| Longest scoring run | DUKE– | MIA– |
| Time leading | DUKE– | MIA– |
Duke Blue Devils vs Miami Hurricanes model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | MIA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 84% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 84% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 84% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 84% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 84% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 84% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 84% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 84% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 84% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 84% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:09 PM ET | 84% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:32 PM ET | 83% | −2 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 85% | −3 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 88% | — |
- Ratings
- MIA 1812 · DUKE 1636
- Home spread
- −16
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Duke vs Miami odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Hurricanes at 85%, Polymarket at 80% (5 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 84%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | DUKE | MIA | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 15% | 85% | ||
| Polymarket | 20% | 80% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 16% | 84% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Duke Blue Devils vs Miami Hurricanes prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Hurricanes a 16-point favorite at home, with a 84% chance to win. The model total is 53. Ratings: Hurricanes 1812 (2nd of 138), Blue Devils 1636 (25th). The Hurricanes have won 5 of their last 5; the Blue Devils 3 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Hurricanes won 1, the Blue Devils 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Duke Blue Devils
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Boston College Eagles | W 47–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Virginia Cavaliers | W 19–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs North Carolina Tar Heels | L 20–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | L 25–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Stanford Cardinal | W 35–7 | – | – | matchup |
Miami Hurricanes
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at North Carolina Tar Heels | W 38–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Pittsburgh Panthers | W 52–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida State Seminoles | W 43–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Clemson Tigers | W 41–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Central Michigan Chippewas | W 52–3 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Blue Devils at Miami Hurricanes | 31–53 | – | – | matchup | |
| Duke Blue Devils at Miami Hurricanes | 45–21 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Duke Blue Devils: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Miami Hurricanes: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Blue Devils– 5th · W2
- Blue Devils rating1636 25th of 138, 7 games
- Hurricanes– 1st · W8
- Hurricanes rating1812 2nd of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 5th · streak W2
No stances yet today on $DUKE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Duke Blue Devils bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 1st · streak W8
No stances yet today on $MIA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Miami Hurricanes bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Duke Blue Devils at Miami Hurricanes
Sign in to post a take on $DUKEMIA261114: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
Model: Miami 84% to win. Projected score Miami 35, Duke 18; spread Miami −16, total 53. Kalshi 85%, Polymarket 80% for Miami. Duke Blue Devils at Miami Hurricanes, Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 PM ET.