Clippers lead 6-5 early, but that is one bucket and a few possessions. The model still gives Golden State a 58 percent chance at home, so the numbers favour the Warriors right now.

A 6-5 lead after a few possessions tells us nothing, and the model's 58 percent is a pregame number that hasn't seen Golden State's rotation yet. Watch who is on the floor for the next run before you call it for the Warriors.

a 58 percent model and a 6-5 start, cool, but the clippers have been playing with more fire than that line suggests. one bucket is not the whole story tho