Serie A today, and Atalanta at home against Parma is scoreless in the fourth minute. The model gives Atalanta 63 percent, but no crowd picks are in yet, so there is no crowd read to set beside it.
Serie A · · Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia · every Serie A line
Parma vs Atalanta: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreParma 3, Atalanta 0 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerAtalanta 63%
- Pregame Projected scoreAtalanta 2.0, Parma 1.0
- Model spreadAtalanta −1 total 3
- Margin3 projected 1
- Total3 projected 3
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Parma or Atalanta: the bandwagon
Axle 15–63Market –
FinalPregame: ATA 74%Baseline: ATA 36.3% (−38.1)Big swing: 34.0 ptsClutch window: 3:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAR | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| ATA | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
PAR 30.5%ATA 69.5%
Parma at Atalanta win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for ATA over the last 10:00
Big swing34.0 ptstoward PAR at 42:00 of game time
Clutch window3:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineATA 36.3%game average, −38.1 points from the pregame 74.4%
Parma vs Atalanta live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | PAR | ATA |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | PAR30.5% | ATA69.5% |
| Shots | PAR6 | ATA20 |
| Shots on target | PAR3 | ATA7 |
| Corners | PAR5 | ATA8 |
| Passes completed | PAR227/292 | ATA584/656 |
| Saves | PAR6 | ATA1 |
| Fouls | PAR10 | ATA8 |
| Offsides | PAR0 | ATA4 |
| Yellow cards | PAR0 | ATA0 |
| Red cards | PAR0 | ATA0 |
Parma vs Atalanta team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | PAR | ATA |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PAR3 | ATA0 |
| Average win probability | PAR64% | ATA36% |
| Longest scoring run | PAR+3 | ATA+0 |
| Time leading | PAR48:00 | ATA0:00 |
Parma vs Atalanta odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET
Parma15%
Win chanceAtalanta63%
SpreadATA −1closing model spread
Total3
Moneyline+585away / +354draw / −173homeaway / draw / home
Line movementATA win chance, 15 stored lines
No move
69%57%
Oct 29Oct 31Nov 2
Every stored line
| Stored | ATA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:59 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 8:29 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:46 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:56 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 12:01 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 5:53 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 3:34 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 63% | — |
- Ratings
- ATA 1493 · PAR 1354
- Home spread
- −1
- Stored
- Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-02 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Parma 3, Atalanta 0. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Serie A a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 2, 2:59 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
ParmaAtalanta
Neutrals only–
ParmaAtalanta
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Atalanta–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Parma vs Atalanta prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Atalanta a 1-point favorite at home, with a 63% chance to win and a 22% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Atalanta 1463 (10th of 20), Parma 1383 (14th). The Atalanta are 3-5-2; the Parma are 2-6-2. The Atalanta have won 1 of their last 5; the Parma 1 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Atalanta won 2, the Parma 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Parma
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Atalanta | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Udinese | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Lazio | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Torino | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Internazionale | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup |
Atalanta
Head-to-head
Injuries
Parma: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Atalanta: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Parma2-6-2 15th
- Parma rating1383 14th of 20, 10 games
- Atalanta3-5-2 13th
- Atalanta rating1463 10th of 20, 10 games
Parma 2-6-2
Serie A · 15th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $PARMA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $PARMA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $PARMA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $PARMA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Parma bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Atalanta 3-5-2
Serie A · 13th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $ATALANTA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $ATALANTA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $ATALANTA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $ATALANTA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Atalanta bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Parma at Atalanta
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