Serie A odds, Nov 2–8, 2026: Bandwagon's model vs Kalshi and Polymarket
Bandwagon's model has a line on 12 of 12 Serie A games Nov 2–8, 2026. Its biggest favorite is AS Roma at 78%, against Sassuolo; its closest game is Udinese at Venezia, 37%–34%. The largest gap with a market is Bologna at Parma: the model gives Bologna 44% and Kalshi 57% (13 points). Model as of Nov 8, 2:03 PM ET; prices as of Nov 8, 1:51 PM ET.
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
Serie A Nov 2–8, 2026 slate
12 games| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Model win chance | Model spread | Model total | Kalshi | Polymarket | Crowd | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina at Sassuolo | Sassuolo 39% draw 29% | even | 3.5 | – | – | – | Fiorentina 4, Sassuolo 2 model's favorite lost | |
| Parma at Atalanta | Atalanta 63% draw 22% | Atalanta −1 | 3 | – | – | – | Parma 3, Atalanta 0 model's favorite lost | |
| Udinese at Venezia | Udinese 37% draw 29% | even | 3 | Udinese 32% | Udinese 31% | – | Udinese 1, Venezia 2 model's favorite lost | |
| Frosinone at Cagliari | Frosinone 41% draw 29% | even | 3 | Frosinone 45% | Frosinone 45% | – | Frosinone 0, Cagliari 1 model's favorite lost | |
| Lecce at Torino | Torino 51% draw 27% | Torino −0.5 | 3 | Torino 56% | Torino 55% | – | Lecce 1, Torino 1 ended level | |
| Bologna at Parma | Bologna 44% draw 29% | even | 2.5 | Bologna 57% | Bologna 57% | – | Bologna 2, Parma 1 model's favorite won | |
| Sassuolo at AS Roma | AS Roma 78% draw 14% | AS Roma −1.5 | 3.5 | AS Roma 76% | AS Roma 75% | – | Sassuolo 0, AS Roma 3 model's favorite won | |
| Lazio at Napoli | Napoli 38% draw 29% | even | 3 | Napoli 45% | Napoli 46% | – | Lazio 1, Napoli 1 ended level | |
| Atalanta at Monza | Atalanta 51% draw 27% | Atalanta −0.5 | 3.5 | Atalanta 53% | Atalanta 52% | – | Atalanta 1, Monza 0 model's favorite won | |
| AC Milan at Genoa | AC Milan 51% draw 27% | AC Milan −0.5 | 3 | AC Milan 49% | AC Milan 48% | – | AC Milan 2, Genoa 1 model's favorite won | |
| Como at Internazionale | Internazionale 54% draw 26% | Internazionale −0.5 | 3 | Internazionale 46% | Internazionale 45% | – | Como 0, Internazionale 2 model's favorite won | |
| Juventus at Fiorentina | Juventus 48% draw 28% | Juventus −0.5 | 3 | Juventus 44% | Juventus 44% | – | Juventus 2, Fiorentina 2 ended level |
Kalshi and Polymarket show their implied chance for the side the model favors (the home side where the model has no favorite), from the newest price in the last day; for a game already played, the last price before kickoff. The crowd column is Bandwagon members' picks.
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
The model's record this week
The model's favorite won 5 of 12 finished Serie A games that had a favorite (42%), and 3 games ended level. Each line is the one stored before kickoff. The model's record