Pittsburgh Penguins vs Dallas Stars prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Penguins at Stars: Bandwagon's model makes the Stars a 62% favorite (Stars −0.5).
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Dallas Stars model odds and win probability
Axle gives the Stars a 62% chance to win.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every NHL marketEach bar is the chance that the Stars win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 62%.
The largest gap is 9 points: Polymarket has the Stars at 71%, Axle at 62%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before puck drop
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Why Axle has the Stars
All NHL ratings| PIT | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1483 21st of 32 | 1540 8th of 32 |
| Record | 6-10-2 | 10-5-2 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 2 | 4 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | DAL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 9:48 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:48 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 1:02 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:12 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 62% | — |
Penguins vs Stars odds on Polymarket
Every NHL marketPolymarket prices the Stars at 71%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 62%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | PIT | DAL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 29% | 71% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 38% | 62% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Dallas Stars prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Stars a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 62% chance to win. The model total is 6.5. Ratings: Stars 1540 (8th of 32), Penguins 1483 (21st). The Stars are 10-5-2 in the Central Division; the Penguins are 6-10-2 in the Metropolitan Division. The Stars have won 3 of their last 5; the Penguins 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Stars won 4, the Penguins 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Anaheim Ducks | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Los Angeles Kings | W 5–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Boston Bruins | L 2–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Vegas Golden Knights | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Montreal Canadiens | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup |
Dallas Stars
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs San Jose Sharks | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Columbus Blue Jackets | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington Capitals | W 6–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Columbus Blue Jackets | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Montreal Canadiens | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins | 6–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Pittsburgh Penguins at Dallas Stars | 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Pittsburgh Penguins at Dallas Stars | 5–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins | 7–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Pittsburgh Penguins at Dallas Stars | 2–4 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Pittsburgh Penguins: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Dallas Stars: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Penguins6-10-2 Metropolitan Division, 8th · L1
- Penguins rating1483 21st of 32, 18 games
- Stars10-5-2 Central Division, 4th · W1
- Stars rating1540 8th of 32, 17 games
More NHL games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Pittsburgh Penguins 6-10-2
National Hockey League · Metropolitan Division · 8th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $PENGUINS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Pittsburgh Penguins bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Dallas Stars 10-5-2
National Hockey League · Central Division · 4th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $STARS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Dallas Stars bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Pittsburgh Penguins at Dallas Stars
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Stars 62% to win. Projected score Stars 3.6, Penguins 2.9; spread Stars −0.5, total 6.5. Polymarket 71% for the Stars. Pittsburgh Penguins at Dallas Stars, Sun, Nov 22, 7:00 PM ET.