Edmonton leads 3-0 with 9:41 gone in the second, and the model has the Rangers at 47 percent at home. A three-goal deficit moves that number more than noise would, so watch how New York responds.
NHL · · Madison Square Garden · every National Hockey League line
Edmonton Oilers vs New York Rangers: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scoreOilers 4, Rangers 1 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerOilers 53%
- Model spreadeven total 6.5
- Margin3
- Total5 projected 6.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Edmonton Oilers or New York Rangers: the bandwagon
Bandwagon1 on the bandwagon so far
Be the first on the bandwagon
Axle 53–47Market 46–54
FinalPregame: NYR 47%Baseline: NYR 10.8% (−36.1)Big swing: 17.0 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| NYR | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Shots
EDM 25NYR 29
Edmonton Oilers at New York Rangers win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable−0.6 points for NYR over the last 5:00
Big swing17.0 ptstoward EDM at 0:50 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 1 goals in the final period
BaselineNYR 10.8%game average, −36.1 points from the pregame 46.9%
Edmonton Oilers vs New York Rangers live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | EDM | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | EDM25 | NYR29 |
| Hits | EDM19 | NYR23 |
| Blocked shots | EDM15 | NYR13 |
| Power play | EDM1/4 | NYR0/2 |
| Faceoff win | EDM36.0% | NYR64.0% |
| Takeaways | EDM4 | NYR7 |
| Giveaways | EDM15 | NYR13 |
| Penalty minutes | EDM4 | NYR8 |
Edmonton Oilers vs New York Rangers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | EDM | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Score | EDM4 | NYR1 |
| Average win probability | EDM89% | NYR11% |
| Longest scoring run | EDM+3 | NYR+1 |
| Time leading | EDM58:50 | NYR0:00 |
Edmonton Oilers vs New York Rangers model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET
Oilers53%
Win chanceRangers47%
SpreadPKclosing model spread
Total6.5
Moneyline−113away / +113homeaway / home
Line movementNYR win chance, 14 stored lines
−1 pts for NYR between Oct 28 and Nov 1
54%41%
Oct 28Oct 30Nov 1
Every stored line
| Stored | NYR win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:44 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:56 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:46 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:36 PM ET | 47% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:48 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:14 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 48% | — |
- Ratings
- NYR 1487 · EDM 1533
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET · 2026-11-01 10:02 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Edmonton Oilers 4, New York Rangers 1. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 31, 11:30 PM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · 1 pick
Be the first on the bandwagon
OilersRangers
Neutrals only–
OilersRangers
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Rangers–
1 pick so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Oilers vs Rangers odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NHL marketKalshi had the Oilers at 46% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 46% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 53% when last read, .
| Source | EDM | NYR | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 46% | 54% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 46% | 54% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 53% | 47% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, NYR: +7Polymarket minus model, NYR: +7
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Edmonton Oilers vs New York Rangers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Oilers the favorite, with a 53% chance to win; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 6.5. Ratings: Rangers 1486 (19th of 32), Oilers 1535 (7th). The Rangers are 8-7-1 in the Metropolitan Division; the Oilers are 11-2-3 in the Pacific Division. The Rangers have won 1 of their last 5; the Oilers 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Rangers won 2, the Oilers 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Edmonton Oilers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at New Jersey Devils | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New York Rangers | W 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New York Islanders | W 4–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Calgary Flames | W 4–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Detroit Red Wings | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup |
New York Rangers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs St. Louis Blues | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Edmonton Oilers | L 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Los Angeles Kings | L 3–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Ottawa Senators | L 4–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Toronto Maple Leafs | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Rangers at Edmonton Oilers | 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Edmonton Oilers at New York Rangers | 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Edmonton Oilers at New York Rangers | 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| New York Rangers at Edmonton Oilers | 2–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| Edmonton Oilers at New York Rangers | 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| New York Rangers at Edmonton Oilers | 3–0 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Edmonton Oilers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
New York Rangers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Oilers11-2-3 Pacific Division, 1st · L1
- Oilers rating1535 7th of 32, 16 games
- Rangers8-7-1 Metropolitan Division, 3rd · W1
- Rangers rating1486 19th of 32, 16 games
Edmonton Oilers 11-2-3
National Hockey League · Pacific Division · 1st · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagon1 stance so far today on $OILERS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagon1 stance so far today on $OILERS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $OILERS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
1 stance today on $OILERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Edmonton Oilers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
New York Rangers 8-7-1
National Hockey League · Metropolitan Division · 3rd · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $RANGERSNYR
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $RANGERSNYR
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $RANGERSNYR
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $RANGERSNYR: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New York Rangers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Edmonton Oilers at New York Rangers
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