Los Angeles Kings vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Kings at Maple Leafs: Bandwagon's model makes the Maple Leafs a 54% favorite (Maple Leafs −0.5).
Los Angeles Kings vs Toronto Maple Leafs model odds and win probability
Axle gives the Maple Leafs a 54% chance to win.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every NHL marketEach bar is the chance that the Maple Leafs win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 54%.
The largest gap is 2 points: Polymarket has the Maple Leafs at 56%, Axle at 54%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before puck drop
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before puck drop. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has the Maple Leafs
All NHL ratings| LA | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1463 27th of 32 | 1463 28th of 32 |
| Record | 5-9-2 | 8-10-2 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 3 | 3 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | TOR win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 12:47 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:47 AM ET | 54% | +1 |
| Nov 10, 9:48 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 1:02 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:12 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 9:58 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 9:53 PM ET | 53% | −1 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:47 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:47 PM ET | 54% | +1 |
| Nov 7, 11:42 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:52 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:32 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:05 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 9:55 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 9:45 PM ET | 53% | −1 |
| Nov 7, 7:39 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:40 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:49 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:44 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 54% | — |
Kings vs Maple Leafs odds on Polymarket
Every NHL marketPolymarket prices the Maple Leafs at 56%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 54%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | LA | TOR | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 44% | 56% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 46% | 54% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Los Angeles Kings vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Maple Leafs a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 54% chance to win. The model total is 6.5. Ratings: Maple Leafs 1463 (28th of 32), Kings 1463 (27th). The Maple Leafs are 8-10-2 in the Atlantic Division; the Kings are 5-9-2 in the Pacific Division. The Maple Leafs have won 1 of their last 5; the Kings 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Maple Leafs won 3, the Kings 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Los Angeles Kings
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Nashville Predators | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Pittsburgh Penguins | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Jose Sharks | W 7–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Buffalo Sabres | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ottawa Senators | W 6–5 | – | – | matchup |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Colorado Avalanche | L 3–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Jersey Devils | L 0–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Montreal Canadiens | L 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah Mammoth | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Vancouver Canucks | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Maple Leafs at Los Angeles Kings | 6–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| Los Angeles Kings at Toronto Maple Leafs | 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs at Los Angeles Kings | 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Los Angeles Kings at Toronto Maple Leafs | 2–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs at Los Angeles Kings | 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Los Angeles Kings at Toronto Maple Leafs | 4–1 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Los Angeles Kings: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Toronto Maple Leafs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Kings5-9-2 Pacific Division, 7th · L2
- Kings rating1463 27th of 32, 15 games
- Maple Leafs8-10-2 Atlantic Division, 7th · L4
- Maple Leafs rating1463 28th of 32, 19 games
More NHL games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Los Angeles Kings 5-9-2
National Hockey League · Pacific Division · 7th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $KINGSLA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Los Angeles Kings bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Toronto Maple Leafs 8-10-2
National Hockey League · Atlantic Division · 7th · streak L4
No stances yet today on $LEAFS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Toronto Maple Leafs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Los Angeles Kings at Toronto Maple Leafs
Sign in to post a take on $KINGSLALEAFS261120: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Maple Leafs 54% to win. Projected score Maple Leafs 3.4, Kings 3.1; spread Maple Leafs −0.5, total 6.5. Polymarket 56% for the Maple Leafs. Los Angeles Kings at Toronto Maple Leafs, Thu, Nov 19, 7:00 PM ET.