Philadelphia Flyers vs Montreal Canadiens prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Flyers at Canadiens: Bandwagon's model makes the Canadiens a 64% favorite (Canadiens −1).
Philadelphia Flyers vs Montreal Canadiens model odds and win probability
Axle gives the Canadiens a 64% chance to win.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every NHL marketEach bar is the chance that the Canadiens win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 64%.
The largest gap is 2 points: Axle has the Canadiens at 64%, Polymarket at 62%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before puck drop
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Why Axle has the Canadiens
All NHL ratings| PHI | MTL | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1469 25th of 32 | 1548 5th of 32 |
| Record | 5-10-5 | 11-3-4 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 4 | 2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | MTL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 64% | −1 |
| Nov 10, 9:48 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 1:02 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:12 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 9:58 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 9:53 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 8:43 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 65% | — |
Flyers vs Canadiens odds on Polymarket
Every NHL marketPolymarket prices the Canadiens at 62%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 64%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | PHI | MTL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 38% | 62% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 36% | 64% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Philadelphia Flyers vs Montreal Canadiens prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Canadiens a 1-point favorite at home, with a 64% chance to win. The model total is 6. Ratings: Canadiens 1548 (5th of 32), Flyers 1469 (25th). The Canadiens are 11-3-4 in the Atlantic Division; the Flyers are 5-10-5 in the Metropolitan Division. The Canadiens have won 3 of their last 5; the Flyers 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Canadiens won 2, the Flyers 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Philadelphia Flyers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Vancouver Canucks | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Calgary Flames | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New York Rangers | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Minnesota Wild | L 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah Mammoth | W 6–3 | – | – | matchup |
Montreal Canadiens
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Minnesota Wild | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Toronto Maple Leafs | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah Mammoth | W 5–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Winnipeg Jets | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Pittsburgh Penguins | W 5–4 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers | 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens | 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens | 5–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens | 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens | 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Montreal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers | 4–6 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Philadelphia Flyers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Montreal Canadiens: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Flyers5-10-5 Metropolitan Division, 6th · W1
- Flyers rating1469 25th of 32, 20 games
- Canadiens11-3-4 Atlantic Division, 2nd · L1
- Canadiens rating1548 5th of 32, 17 games
More NHL games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Philadelphia Flyers 5-10-5
National Hockey League · Metropolitan Division · 6th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $FLYERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Philadelphia Flyers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Montreal Canadiens 11-3-4
National Hockey League · Atlantic Division · 2nd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $CANADIENS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Montreal Canadiens bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Canadiens 64% to win. Projected score Canadiens 3.4, Flyers 2.6; spread Canadiens −1, total 6. Polymarket 62% for the Canadiens. Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens, Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM ET.