Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions prediction, odds and picks, November 22, 2026
- Projected winnerLions 67%
- Projected scoreLions 26, Buccaneers 21
- Model spreadLions −5.5 total 46.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Detroit Lions: the bandwagon
Axle 33–67Market –
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | TB | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TB– | DET– |
| Average win probability | TB– | DET– |
| Longest scoring run | TB– | DET– |
| Time leading | TB– | DET– |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions odds
Every stored line
| Stored | DET win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 67% | — |
- Ratings
- DET 1580 · TB 1494
- Home spread
- −5.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Roofed venueforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Lions a 5.5-point favorite at home, with a 67% chance to win. The model total is 46.5. Ratings: Lions 1580 (10th of 32), Buccaneers 1494 (17th). The Lions are 5-2 in the NFC North; the Buccaneers are 3-5 in the NFC South. The Lions have won 4 of their last 5; the Buccaneers 3 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Lions won 3, the Buccaneers 1. The roster source lists 13 Lions and 5 Buccaneers players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Atlanta Falcons | W 16–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Carolina Panthers | W 43–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Pittsburgh Steelers | L 19–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dallas Cowboys | W 24–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Green Bay Packers | L 14–17 | – | – | matchup |
Detroit Lions
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Minnesota Vikings | W 19–15 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Green Bay Packers | W 20–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arizona Cardinals | W 45–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Carolina Panthers | L 26–32 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New York Jets | W 31–24 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions | 9–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions | 20–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions | 23–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 20–6 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jalen McMillan WR, David Sills V WR, Christian Rozeboom LB, Mohamed Kamara LB, Josh Hayes CB
Detroit Lions: Isiah Pacheco RB, Kerby Joseph S, Devin White LB, Tom Kennedy WR, Avonte Maddox CB, Damone Clark LB, Thomas Harper S, Ben Bartch G, Kendrick Law WR, Giovanni Manu OT, Cade Mays C, Jimmy Rolder LB, Payton Turner DE
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Buccaneers3-5 NFC South, 2nd · W2
- Buccaneers rating1494 17th of 32, 8 games
- Lions5-2 NFC North, 3rd · W3
- Lions rating1580 10th of 32, 7 games
National Football League · NFC South · 2nd · streak W2
No stances yet today on $BUCCANEERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Detroit Lions 5-2
National Football League · NFC North · 3rd · streak W3
No stances yet today on $LIONS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Detroit Lions bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Lions 67% to win. Projected score Lions 26, Buccaneers 21; spread Lions −5.5, total 46.5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions, Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET.