Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerWestern Kentucky 53%
- Projected scoreWestern Kentucky 27, Middle Tennessee 26
- Model spreadWestern Kentucky −1.5 total 53
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers or Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: the bandwagon
Axle 53–47Market 52–48
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | WKU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WKU– | MTSU– |
| Average win probability | WKU– | MTSU– |
| Longest scoring run | WKU– | MTSU– |
| Time leading | WKU– | MTSU– |
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | MTSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 47% | −5 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 52% | — |
- Ratings
- MTSU 1333 · WKU 1406
- Home spread
- +1.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Hilltoppers at 52%, Polymarket at 53% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 53%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | WKU | MTSU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 52% | 48% | ||
| Polymarket | 53% | 47% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 53% | 47% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Hilltoppers a 1.5-point favorite, with a 53% chance to win. The model total is 53. Ratings: Blue Raiders 1333 (123rd of 138), Hilltoppers 1406 (101st). The Blue Raiders have won 2 of their last 5; the Hilltoppers 2 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Blue Raiders won 0, the Hilltoppers 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Delaware Blue Hens | L 21–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Sam Houston Bearkats | W 16–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Missouri State Bears | W 34–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Mexico State Aggies | L 13–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Indiana Hoosiers | L 0–38 | – | – | matchup |
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Kennesaw State Owls | L 28–44 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida International Panthers | W 26–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Delaware Blue Hens | W 33–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Kansas Jayhawks | L 0–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Jacksonville State Gamecocks | L 13–23 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 26–42 | – | – | matchup | |
| Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 49–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 10–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 35–17 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Hilltoppers– 6th · L1
- Hilltoppers rating1406 101st of 138, 7 games
- Blue Raiders– 4th · L1
- Blue Raiders rating1333 123rd of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 6th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $WKU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 4th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $MTSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Western Kentucky 53% to win. Projected score Western Kentucky 27, Middle Tennessee 26; spread Western Kentucky −1.5, total 53. Kalshi 52%, Polymarket 53% for Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, Sat, Nov 7, 3:30 PM ET.