UL Monroe Warhawks vs App State Mountaineers prediction, odds and picks, November 21, 2026
- Projected winnerApp State 86%
- Projected scoreApp State 35, UL Monroe 17
- Model spreadApp State −18 total 52.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
UL Monroe Warhawks or App State Mountaineers: the bandwagon
Axle 14–86Market –
UL Monroe Warhawks at App State Mountaineers win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
UL Monroe Warhawks vs App State Mountaineers live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
UL Monroe Warhawks vs App State Mountaineers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | ULM | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ULM– | APP– |
| Average win probability | ULM– | APP– |
| Longest scoring run | ULM– | APP– |
| Time leading | ULM– | APP– |
UL Monroe Warhawks vs App State Mountaineers odds
Every stored line
| Stored | APP win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 86% | — |
- Ratings
- APP 1422 · ULM 1221
- Home spread
- −18
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
UL Monroe Warhawks vs App State Mountaineers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Mountaineers a 18-point favorite at home, with a 86% chance to win. The model total is 52.5. Ratings: Mountaineers 1422 (94th of 138), Warhawks 1221 (136th). The Mountaineers have won 2 of their last 5; the Warhawks 1 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Mountaineers won 1, the Warhawks 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
UL Monroe Warhawks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles | L 21–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Troy Trojans | W 21–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | L 0–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at South Alabama Jaguars | L 35–52 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida Atlantic Owls | L 17–45 | – | – | matchup |
App State Mountaineers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Georgia Southern Eagles | L 3–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs James Madison Dukes | W 34–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | W 35–32 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Old Dominion Monarchs | L 3–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at NC State Wolfpack | L 31–41 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| App State Mountaineers at UL Monroe Warhawks | 41–40 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
UL Monroe Warhawks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
App State Mountaineers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Warhawks– Sun Belt - West, 7th · L1
- Warhawks rating1221 136th of 138, 7 games
- Mountaineers– Sun Belt - East, 2nd · L1
- Mountaineers rating1422 94th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - West · 7th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $ULM: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UL Monroe Warhawks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - East · 2nd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $APP: the share of the crowd ▲ on the App State Mountaineers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: App State 86% to win. Projected score App State 35, UL Monroe 17; spread App State −18, total 52.5. UL Monroe Warhawks at App State Mountaineers, Sat, Nov 21, 12:00 AM ET.