Georgia Southern closed out a 19-3 win over App State, and the model had the Eagles at 64 percent before kickoff. No crowd picks came in, so the fans didn't weigh in on this one.
FBS · · Paulson Stadium · every NCAA Division I FBS football line
App State Mountaineers vs Georgia Southern Eagles: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreApp State 3, Georgia Southern 19 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerGeorgia Southern 64%
- Pregame Projected scoreGeorgia Southern 29, App State 23
- Model spreadGeorgia Southern −5.5 total 52
- Margin16 projected 5.5
- Total22 projected 52
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
App State Mountaineers or Georgia Southern Eagles: the bandwagon
Axle 36–64Market –
FinalPregame: GASO 64%Baseline: GASO 83.0% (+19.1)Big swing: 16.3 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APP | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| GASO | 0 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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App State Mountaineers at Georgia Southern Eagles win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.3 points for GASO over the last 5:00
Big swing16.3 ptstoward GASO at 30:00 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineGASO 83.0%game average, +19.1 points from the pregame 63.8%
App State Mountaineers vs Georgia Southern Eagles live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | APP | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | APP222 | GASO427 |
| First downs | APP12 | GASO25 |
| 3rd down | APP2/9 | GASO8/17 |
| 4th down | APP1/1 | GASO2/3 |
| Turnovers | APP3 | GASO0 |
| Penalties-yards | APP3-27 | GASO6-58 |
| Time of possession | APP16:06 | GASO43:54 |
App State Mountaineers vs Georgia Southern Eagles team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | APP | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Score | APP3 | GASO19 |
| Average win probability | APP17% | GASO83% |
| Longest scoring run | APP+3 | GASO+12 |
| Time leading | APP0:00 | GASO44:04 |
App State Mountaineers vs Georgia Southern Eagles odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET
Mountaineers36%
Win chanceEagles64%
SpreadGASO −5.5closing model spread
Total52
Moneyline+177away / −177homeaway / home
Line movementGASO win chance, 25 stored lines
No move
70%58%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | GASO win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 64% | — |
- Ratings
- GASO 1474 · APP 1448
- Home spread
- −5.5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET · 2026-11-01 00:11 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: App State Mountaineers 3, Georgia Southern Eagles 19. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 31, 5:30 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
MountaineersEagles
Neutrals only–
MountaineersEagles
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Eagles–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
App State Mountaineers vs Georgia Southern Eagles prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Eagles a 5.5-point favorite at home, with a 64% chance to win. The model total is 52. Ratings: Eagles 1500 (69th of 138), Mountaineers 1422 (94th). The Eagles have won 3 of their last 5; the Mountaineers 2 of their last 5. The two have met 5 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Eagles won 4, the Mountaineers 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
App State Mountaineers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Georgia Southern Eagles | L 3–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs James Madison Dukes | W 34–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | W 35–32 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Old Dominion Monarchs | L 3–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at NC State Wolfpack | L 31–41 | – | – | matchup |
Georgia Southern Eagles
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs App State Mountaineers | W 19–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Old Dominion Monarchs | W 23–15 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs James Madison Dukes | L 24–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | W 31–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Houston Cougars | L 28–42 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Southern Eagles at App State Mountaineers | 29–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| Georgia Southern Eagles at App State Mountaineers | 25–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| App State Mountaineers at Georgia Southern Eagles | 20–29 | – | – | matchup | |
| Georgia Southern Eagles at App State Mountaineers | 27–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| App State Mountaineers at Georgia Southern Eagles | 48–51 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
App State Mountaineers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Georgia Southern Eagles: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Mountaineers– Sun Belt - East, 2nd · L1
- Mountaineers rating1422 94th of 138, 7 games
- Eagles– Sun Belt - East, 4th · W2
- Eagles rating1500 69th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - East · 2nd · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $APP
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $APP
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $APP
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $APP: the share of the crowd ▲ on the App State Mountaineers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - East · 4th · streak W2
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $GASO
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $GASO
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $GASO
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $GASO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Georgia Southern Eagles bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on App State Mountaineers at Georgia Southern Eagles
Sign in to post a take on $APPGASO261031: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: App State 3, Georgia Southern 19. Bandwagon's model had the Georgia Southern at 64% and projected Georgia Southern 29, App State 23; spread Georgia Southern −5.5, total 52.