South Alabama Jaguars vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
South Alabama at Southern Miss: Bandwagon's model makes South Alabama a 52% favorite (South Alabama −1).
South Alabama Jaguars vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles model odds and win probability
Axle gives South Alabama a 52% chance to win.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every CFB marketEach bar is the chance that South Alabama win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 52%.
The largest gap is 7 points: Polymarket has South Alabama at 59%, Axle at 52%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has South Alabama
All CFB ratings| USA | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1403 105th of 138 | 1335 123rd of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 4 | 0 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | USM win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 48% | +1 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 47% | −1 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:17 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:12 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:27 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:52 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:47 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:31 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:15 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:10 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:05 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:47 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 8:24 PM ET | 48% | +2 |
| Nov 7, 7:39 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:34 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:29 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:24 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:09 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:59 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:09 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:49 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:29 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:54 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:49 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:29 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:24 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:19 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:04 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 11:51 PM ET | 46% | −3 |
| Nov 5, 11:36 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 49% | — |
South Alabama vs Southern Miss odds on Polymarket
Every College football marketPolymarket prices Jaguars at 59%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 52%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | USA | USM | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 59% | 41% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 52% | 48% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
South Alabama Jaguars vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Jaguars a 1-point favorite, with a 52% chance to win. The model total is 59.5. Ratings: Golden Eagles 1335 (123rd of 138), Jaguars 1403 (105th). The Golden Eagles have won 2 of their last 5; the Jaguars 2 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Golden Eagles won 0, the Jaguars 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
South Alabama Jaguars
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | L 26–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | L 20–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Marshall Thundering Herd | L 13–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arkansas State Red Wolves | W 56–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UL Monroe Warhawks | W 52–35 | – | – | matchup |
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs James Madison Dukes | L 23–54 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UL Monroe Warhawks | W 35–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | W 35–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Arkansas State Red Wolves | L 13–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Troy Trojans | L 34–55 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Miss Golden Eagles at South Alabama Jaguars | 35–42 | – | – | matchup | |
| South Alabama Jaguars at Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 35–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| Southern Miss Golden Eagles at South Alabama Jaguars | 3–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| South Alabama Jaguars at Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 27–20 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
South Alabama Jaguars: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Southern Miss Golden Eagles: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Jaguars– Sun Belt - West, 3rd · L3
- Jaguars rating1403 105th of 138, 8 games
- Golden Eagles– Sun Belt - West, 6th · L1
- Golden Eagles rating1335 123rd of 138, 8 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - West · 3rd · streak L3
No stances yet today on $USA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the South Alabama Jaguars bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - West · 6th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $USM: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on South Alabama Jaguars at Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Sign in to post a take on $USAUSM261121: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:11 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: South Alabama 52% to win. Projected score South Alabama 30, Southern Miss 29; spread South Alabama −1, total 59.5. Polymarket 59% for South Alabama. South Alabama Jaguars at Southern Miss Golden Eagles, Sat, Nov 21, 4:00 PM ET.