South Alabama Jaguars vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerLouisiana 73%
- Projected scoreLouisiana 33, South Alabama 24
- Model spreadLouisiana −10 total 57
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
South Alabama Jaguars or Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns: the bandwagon
Axle 27–73Market 27–73
South Alabama Jaguars at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
South Alabama Jaguars vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
South Alabama Jaguars vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | USA | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | USA– | UL– |
| Average win probability | USA– | UL– |
| Longest scoring run | USA– | UL– |
| Time leading | USA– | UL– |
South Alabama Jaguars vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | UL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:26 PM ET | 73% | +5 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 68% | −5 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 73% | +1 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 72% | — |
- Ratings
- UL 1498 · USA 1411
- Home spread
- −10
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
South Alabama vs Louisiana odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Ragin' Cajuns at 73%, Polymarket at 74% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 73%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | USA | UL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 28% | 73% | ||
| Polymarket | 27% | 74% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 27% | 73% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
South Alabama Jaguars vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Ragin' Cajuns a 10-point favorite at home, with a 73% chance to win. The model total is 57. Ratings: Ragin' Cajuns 1498 (70th of 138), Jaguars 1411 (99th). The Ragin' Cajuns have won 3 of their last 5; the Jaguars 2 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Ragin' Cajuns won 2, the Jaguars 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
South Alabama Jaguars
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | L 20–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Marshall Thundering Herd | L 13–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arkansas State Red Wolves | W 56–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UL Monroe Warhawks | W 52–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Kentucky Wildcats | L 21–45 | – | – | matchup |
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Southern Miss Golden Eagles | L 31–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Troy Trojans | W 33–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | L 31–32 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Arkansas State Red Wolves | W 23–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Charlotte 49ers | W 34–7 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at South Alabama Jaguars | 31–22 | – | – | matchup | |
| South Alabama Jaguars at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 24–22 | – | – | matchup | |
| Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at South Alabama Jaguars | 33–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| South Alabama Jaguars at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 20–17 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
South Alabama Jaguars: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Jaguars– Sun Belt - West, 3rd · L2
- Jaguars rating1411 99th of 138, 7 games
- Ragin' Cajuns– Sun Belt - West, 2nd · L1
- Ragin' Cajuns rating1498 70th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - West · 3rd · streak L2
No stances yet today on $USA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the South Alabama Jaguars bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - West · 2nd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $UL: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Louisiana 73% to win. Projected score Louisiana 33, South Alabama 24; spread Louisiana −10, total 57. Kalshi 73%, Polymarket 74% for Louisiana. South Alabama Jaguars at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns, Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM ET.