Oregon Ducks vs Ohio State Buckeyes prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerOhio State 74%
- Projected scoreOhio State 31, Oregon 21
- Model spreadOhio State −10 total 52
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Oregon Ducks or Ohio State Buckeyes: the bandwagon
Axle 26–74Market 27–73
Oregon Ducks at Ohio State Buckeyes win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Oregon Ducks vs Ohio State Buckeyes live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Oregon Ducks vs Ohio State Buckeyes team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | ORE | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ORE– | OSU– |
| Average win probability | ORE– | OSU– |
| Longest scoring run | ORE– | OSU– |
| Time leading | ORE– | OSU– |
Oregon Ducks vs Ohio State Buckeyes model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | OSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:14 PM ET | 74% | −5 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:01 PM ET | 79% | −2 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 81% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 82% | — |
- Ratings
- OSU 1786 · ORE 1697
- Home spread
- −10
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Oregon vs Ohio State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Buckeyes at 73%, Polymarket at 73%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 74%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | ORE | OSU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 27% | 73% | ||
| Polymarket | 27% | 73% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 26% | 74% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Oregon Ducks vs Ohio State Buckeyes prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Buckeyes a 10-point favorite at home, with a 74% chance to win. The model total is 52. Ratings: Buckeyes 1786 (4th of 138), Ducks 1697 (12th). The Buckeyes have won 4 of their last 5; the Ducks 3 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Buckeyes won 1, the Ducks 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Oregon Ducks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Northwestern Wildcats | W 34–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Illinois Fighting Illini | L 10–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Nebraska Cornhuskers | W 17–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UCLA Bruins | L 15–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at USC Trojans | W 41–27 | – | – | matchup |
Ohio State Buckeyes
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at USC Trojans | L 18–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Indiana Hoosiers | W 19–15 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Maryland Terrapins | W 45–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Iowa Hawkeyes | W 31–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Illinois Fighting Illini | W 42–19 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State Buckeyes at Oregon Ducks | 41–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| Ohio State Buckeyes at Oregon Ducks | 31–32 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Oregon Ducks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Ohio State Buckeyes: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Ducks– 9th · W1
- Ducks rating1697 12th of 138, 7 games
- Buckeyes– 4th · L1
- Buckeyes rating1786 4th of 138, 8 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 9th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $ORE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Oregon Ducks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 4th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $OSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Ohio State Buckeyes bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Oregon Ducks at Ohio State Buckeyes
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Model: Ohio State 74% to win. Projected score Ohio State 31, Oregon 21; spread Ohio State −10, total 52. Kalshi 73%, Polymarket 73% for Ohio State. Oregon Ducks at Ohio State Buckeyes, Sat, Nov 7, 3:30 PM ET.