USC leads 7-3 with 7:44 left in the first, but the model has the Trojans at just 27 percent, so the early lead is running against the numbers. No crowd picks are in yet, so the fans haven't weighed in.
FBS · · every NCAA Division I FBS football line
Ohio State Buckeyes vs USC Trojans: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreOhio State 18, USC 30 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerOhio State 73%
- Pregame Projected scoreOhio State 32, USC 23
- Model spreadOhio State −9.5 total 54.5
- Margin12 projected 9.5
- Total48 projected 54.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Ohio State Buckeyes or USC Trojans: the bandwagon
Axle 73–27Market 69–32
FinalPregame: USC 27%Baseline: USC 69.8% (+42.5)Big swing: 27.0 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OSU | 3 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
| USC | 14 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 30 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Ohio State Buckeyes at USC Trojans win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+1.7 points for USC over the last 5:00
Big swing27.0 ptstoward OSU at 27:33 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineUSC 69.8%game average, +42.5 points from the pregame 27.4%
Ohio State Buckeyes vs USC Trojans live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | OSU | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | OSU464 | USC338 |
| First downs | OSU25 | USC15 |
| 3rd down | OSU7/16 | USC4/10 |
| 4th down | OSU0/1 | USC0/0 |
| Turnovers | OSU1 | USC1 |
| Penalties-yards | OSU11-71 | USC6-42 |
| Time of possession | OSU39:28 | USC20:32 |
Ohio State Buckeyes vs USC Trojans team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | OSU | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OSU18 | USC30 |
| Average win probability | OSU30% | USC70% |
| Longest scoring run | OSU+15 | USC+17 |
| Time leading | OSU0:00 | USC60:00 |
Ohio State Buckeyes vs USC Trojans model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET
Buckeyes73%
Win chanceTrojans27%
SpreadOSU −9.5closing model spread
Total54.5
Moneyline−265away / +265homeaway / home
Line movementUSC win chance, 29 stored lines
−6 pts for USC between Oct 28 and Oct 31
38%22%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | USC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 27% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 28% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 27% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 28% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 27% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 28% | +1 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 27% | −1 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 28% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 27% | −6 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 33% | — |
- Ratings
- USC 1638 · OSU 1830
- Home spread
- +9.5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET · 2026-11-01 03:04 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Ohio State Buckeyes 18, USC Trojans 30. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
BuckeyesTrojans
Neutrals only–
BuckeyesTrojans
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Trojans–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Ohio State vs USC odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Buckeyes at 69% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 69% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 73% when last read, .
| Source | OSU | USC | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 69% | 32% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 69% | 32% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 73% | 27% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, USC: +4Polymarket minus model, USC: +4
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Ohio State Buckeyes vs USC Trojans prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Buckeyes a 9.5-point favorite, with a 73% chance to win. The model total is 54.5. Ratings: Trojans 1683 (17th of 138), Buckeyes 1786 (4th). The Trojans have won 3 of their last 5; the Buckeyes 4 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Ohio State Buckeyes
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at USC Trojans | L 18–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Indiana Hoosiers | W 19–15 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Maryland Terrapins | W 45–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Iowa Hawkeyes | W 31–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Illinois Fighting Illini | W 42–19 | – | – | matchup |
USC Trojans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Ohio State Buckeyes | W 30–18 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Wisconsin Badgers | L 7–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Penn State Nittany Lions | W 31–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Washington Huskies | W 25–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Oregon Ducks | L 27–41 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Ohio State Buckeyes: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
USC Trojans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Buckeyes– 4th · L1
- Buckeyes rating1786 4th of 138, 8 games
- Trojans– 3rd · W1
- Trojans rating1683 17th of 138, 9 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 4th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $OSU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $OSU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $OSU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $OSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Ohio State Buckeyes bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 3rd · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $USC
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $USC
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $USC
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $USC: the share of the crowd ▲ on the USC Trojans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Ohio State Buckeyes at USC Trojans
Sign in to post a take on $OSUUSC261031: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Ohio State 18, USC 30. Bandwagon's model had the Ohio State at 73% and projected Ohio State 32, USC 23; spread Ohio State −9.5, total 54.5. Last read: Kalshi 69%, Polymarket 69% for Ohio State.