Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerBoise State 89%
- Projected scoreBoise State 39, Oregon State 19
- Model spreadBoise State −20 total 58.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Oregon State Beavers or Boise State Broncos: the bandwagon
Axle 11–89Market 33–67
Oregon State Beavers at Boise State Broncos win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | ORST | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ORST– | BOIS– |
| Average win probability | ORST– | BOIS– |
| Longest scoring run | ORST– | BOIS– |
| Time leading | ORST– | BOIS– |
Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | BOIS win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:39 AM ET | 89% | +2 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 87% | — |
- Ratings
- BOIS 1691 · ORST 1457
- Home spread
- −20
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Oregon State vs Boise State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Broncos at 66%, Polymarket at 68% (2 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 89%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | ORST | BOIS | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 34% | 66% | ||
| Polymarket | 32% | 68% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 11% | 89% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Broncos a 20-point favorite at home, with a 89% chance to win. The model total is 58.5. Ratings: Broncos 1691 (13th of 138), Beavers 1457 (83rd). The Broncos have won 5 of their last 5; the Beavers 4 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Broncos won 1, the Beavers 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Oregon State Beavers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Fresno State Bulldogs | L 22–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Washington State Cougars | W 48–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Diego State Aztecs | W 66–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado State Rams | W 56–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UTEP Miners | W 33–7 | – | – | matchup |
Boise State Broncos
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Texas State Bobcats | W 46–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington State Cougars | W 31–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Fresno State Bulldogs | W 38–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah State Aggies | W 37–18 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Western Michigan Broncos | W 32–7 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon State Beavers at Boise State Broncos | 18–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| Boise State Broncos at Oregon State Beavers | 17–34 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Oregon State Beavers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Boise State Broncos: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Beavers– 2nd · L1
- Beavers rating1457 83rd of 138, 7 games
- Broncos– 1st · W7
- Broncos rating1691 13th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 2nd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $ORST: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Oregon State Beavers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 1st · streak W7
No stances yet today on $BOIS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Boise State Broncos bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Oregon State Beavers at Boise State Broncos
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Model: Boise State 89% to win. Projected score Boise State 39, Oregon State 19; spread Boise State −20, total 58.5. Kalshi 66%, Polymarket 68% for Boise State. Oregon State Beavers at Boise State Broncos, Sat, Nov 14, 6:00 PM ET.