Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Arizona State Sun Devils prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Oklahoma State at Arizona State: Bandwagon's model makes Arizona State a 64% favorite (Arizona State −6); Kalshi prices them at 34%.
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Arizona State Sun Devils model odds and win probability
Axle gives Arizona State a 64% chance to win, by about 6 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every CFB marketEach bar is the chance that Arizona State win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 64%.
The largest gap is 35 points: Axle has Arizona State at 64%, Polymarket at 29%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Arizona State
All CFB ratings| OKST | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1504 68th of 138 | 1533 57th of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | W1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 2 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | ASU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:17 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:12 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:27 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:52 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:47 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:31 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:20 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:15 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:10 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:05 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:47 PM ET | 64% | +2 |
| Nov 7, 8:24 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:39 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:34 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:29 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:24 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:09 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:59 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:09 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:49 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:34 PM ET | 62% | −10 |
| Nov 7, 4:29 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:54 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:49 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:29 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:24 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:19 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:04 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 11:36 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 72% | — |
Oklahoma State vs Arizona State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Sun Devils at 34%, Polymarket at 29% (5 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 64%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | OKST | ASU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 66% | 34% | ||
| Polymarket | 71% | 29% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 36% | 64% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Arizona State Sun Devils prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Sun Devils a 6-point favorite at home, with a 64% chance to win. The model total is 59. Ratings: Sun Devils 1533 (57th of 138), Cowboys 1504 (68th). The Sun Devils have won 3 of their last 5; the Cowboys 3 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Sun Devils won 1, the Cowboys 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Oklahoma State Cowboys
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Kansas State Wildcats | W 66–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Iowa State Cyclones | L 49–51 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Colorado Buffaloes | W 57–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Houston Cougars | L 32–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UCF Knights | W 42–28 | – | – | matchup |
Arizona State Sun Devils
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Colorado Buffaloes | W 20–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at BYU Cougars | L 20–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kansas State Wildcats | W 28–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas Tech Red Raiders | L 25–53 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | W 30–12 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona State Sun Devils at Oklahoma State Cowboys | 42–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| Oklahoma State Cowboys at Arizona State Sun Devils | 27–15 | – | – | matchup | |
| Arizona State Sun Devils at Oklahoma State Cowboys | 17–34 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Oklahoma State Cowboys: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Arizona State Sun Devils: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Cowboys– 7th · W1
- Cowboys rating1504 68th of 138, 8 games
- Sun Devils– 8th · W1
- Sun Devils rating1533 57th of 138, 8 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · 7th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $OKST: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Oklahoma State Cowboys bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 8th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $ASU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Arizona State Sun Devils bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Oklahoma State Cowboys at Arizona State Sun Devils
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Arizona State 64% to win. Projected score Arizona State 32, Oklahoma State 27; spread Arizona State −6, total 59. Kalshi 34%, Polymarket 29% for Arizona State. Oklahoma State Cowboys at Arizona State Sun Devils, Sat, Nov 21, 10:15 PM ET.