Colorado Buffaloes vs Arizona State Sun Devils prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerArizona State 82%
- Projected scoreArizona State 34, Colorado 19
- Model spreadArizona State −14.5 total 52.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Colorado Buffaloes or Arizona State Sun Devils: the bandwagon
Axle 18–82Market 40–60
Colorado Buffaloes at Arizona State Sun Devils win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Colorado Buffaloes vs Arizona State Sun Devils live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Colorado Buffaloes vs Arizona State Sun Devils team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | COLO | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COLO– | ASU– |
| Average win probability | COLO– | ASU– |
| Longest scoring run | COLO– | ASU– |
| Time leading | COLO– | ASU– |
Colorado Buffaloes vs Arizona State Sun Devils model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | ASU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:09 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 82% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 83% | −2 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 85% | −3 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 88% | — |
- Ratings
- ASU 1520 · COLO 1365
- Home spread
- −14.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Colorado vs Arizona State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Sun Devils at 60%, Polymarket at 60%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 82%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | COLO | ASU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 40% | 60% | ||
| Polymarket | 40% | 60% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 18% | 82% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Colorado Buffaloes vs Arizona State Sun Devils prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Sun Devils a 14.5-point favorite at home, with a 82% chance to win. The model total is 52.5. Ratings: Sun Devils 1520 (64th of 138), Buffaloes 1365 (115th). The Sun Devils have won 2 of their last 5; the Buffaloes 1 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Sun Devils won 2, the Buffaloes 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Colorado Buffaloes
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Kansas State Wildcats | W 27–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Oklahoma State Cowboys | L 24–57 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah Utes | L 24–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Texas Tech Red Raiders | L 7–29 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Baylor Bears | L 13–23 | – | – | matchup |
Arizona State Sun Devils
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at BYU Cougars | L 20–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kansas State Wildcats | W 28–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas Tech Red Raiders | L 25–53 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | W 30–12 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Baylor Bears | L 19–55 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona State Sun Devils at Colorado Buffaloes | 42–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| Colorado Buffaloes at Arizona State Sun Devils | 27–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| Arizona State Sun Devils at Colorado Buffaloes | 42–34 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Colorado Buffaloes: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Arizona State Sun Devils: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Buffaloes– 15th · W1
- Buffaloes rating1365 115th of 138, 7 games
- Sun Devils– 12th · L1
- Sun Devils rating1520 64th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 15th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $COLO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Colorado Buffaloes bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 12th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $ASU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Arizona State Sun Devils bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Colorado Buffaloes at Arizona State Sun Devils
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Model: Arizona State 82% to win. Projected score Arizona State 34, Colorado 19; spread Arizona State −14.5, total 52.5. Kalshi 60%, Polymarket 60% for Arizona State. Colorado Buffaloes at Arizona State Sun Devils, Sat, Nov 7, 7:30 PM ET.