Kickoff for Kansas State at Colorado, still 0-0 with 13:07 left in the first. The model has Colorado at 28 percent and there are no crowd picks yet, so the Buffaloes' fans are keeping their opinions to themselves for now.
FBS · · every NCAA Division I FBS football line
Kansas State Wildcats vs Colorado Buffaloes: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreKansas State 24, Colorado 27 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerKansas State 73%
- Pregame Projected scoreKansas State 30, Colorado 21
- Model spreadKansas State −9.5 total 50.5
- Margin3 projected 9.5
- Total51 projected 50.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Kansas State Wildcats or Colorado Buffaloes: the bandwagon
Axle 73–27Market 42–59
Final · OTPregame: COLO 28%Baseline: COLO 51.2% (+23.6)Big swing: 98.3 ptsClutch window: 17:30
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KSU | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 24 |
| COLO | 7 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 27 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Kansas State Wildcats at Colorado Buffaloes win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to COLO+7.9 points for COLO over the last 5:00
Big swing98.3 ptstoward KSU at 62:30 of game time
Clutch window17:30within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineCOLO 51.2%game average, +23.6 points from the pregame 27.6%
Kansas State Wildcats vs Colorado Buffaloes live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | KSU | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | KSU347 | COLO407 |
| First downs | KSU19 | COLO19 |
| 3rd down | KSU7/16 | COLO7/14 |
| 4th down | KSU0/0 | COLO0/0 |
| Turnovers | KSU0 | COLO1 |
| Penalties-yards | KSU5-35 | COLO8-53 |
| Time of possession | KSU31:56 | COLO28:04 |
Kansas State Wildcats vs Colorado Buffaloes team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | KSU | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| Score | KSU24 | COLO27 |
| Average win probability | KSU49% | COLO51% |
| Longest scoring run | KSU+17 | COLO+7 |
| Time leading | KSU0:00 | COLO29:04 |
Kansas State Wildcats vs Colorado Buffaloes model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET
Wildcats73%
Win chanceBuffaloes27%
SpreadKSU −9.5closing model spread
Total50.5
Moneyline−264away / +264homeaway / home
Line movementCOLO win chance, 20 stored lines
No move
33%21%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | COLO win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 27% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 28% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 27% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 28% | +1 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 27% | −1 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 28% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 27% | — |
- Ratings
- COLO 1341 · KSU 1532
- Home spread
- +9.5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET · 2026-10-31 20:41 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
- Last move
- home 28% → 27%
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Kansas State Wildcats 24, Colorado Buffaloes 27. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
WildcatsBuffaloes
Neutrals only–
WildcatsBuffaloes
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Buffaloes–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Kansas State vs Colorado odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Wildcats at 43% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 41% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 72% when last read, ; the two venues were 2 points apart at those reads.
| Source | KSU | COLO | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 43% | 57% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 41% | 60% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 73% | 27% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, COLO: +30Polymarket minus model, COLO: +32
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Kansas State Wildcats vs Colorado Buffaloes prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Wildcats a 9.5-point favorite, with a 73% chance to win. The model total is 50.5. Ratings: Buffaloes 1365 (115th of 138), Wildcats 1508 (66th). The Buffaloes have won 1 of their last 5; the Wildcats 1 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Buffaloes won 0, the Wildcats 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Kansas State Wildcats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Colorado Buffaloes | L 24–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arizona State Sun Devils | L 17–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kansas Jayhawks | W 35–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Houston Cougars | L 16–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Cincinnati Bearcats | L 26–31 | – | – | matchup |
Colorado Buffaloes
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Kansas State Wildcats | W 27–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Oklahoma State Cowboys | L 24–57 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah Utes | L 24–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Texas Tech Red Raiders | L 7–29 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Baylor Bears | L 13–23 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Buffaloes at Kansas State Wildcats | 14–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| Kansas State Wildcats at Colorado Buffaloes | 31–28 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Kansas State Wildcats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Colorado Buffaloes: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Wildcats– 14th · L2
- Wildcats rating1508 66th of 138, 7 games
- Buffaloes– 15th · W1
- Buffaloes rating1365 115th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 14th · streak L2
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $KSU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $KSU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $KSU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $KSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Kansas State Wildcats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 15th · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $COLO
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $COLO
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $COLO
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $COLO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Colorado Buffaloes bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Kansas State Wildcats at Colorado Buffaloes
Sign in to post a take on $KSUCOLO261031: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Kansas State 24, Colorado 27. Bandwagon's model had the Kansas State at 73% and projected Kansas State 30, Colorado 21; spread Kansas State −9.5, total 50.5. Last read: Kalshi 43%, Polymarket 41% for Kansas State.