New Mexico Lobos vs Wyoming Cowboys prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
New Mexico at Wyoming: Bandwagon's model makes New Mexico a 68% favorite (New Mexico −7.5); Kalshi prices them at 73%.
New Mexico Lobos vs Wyoming Cowboys model odds and win probability
Axle gives New Mexico a 68% chance to win, by about 8 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every CFB marketEach bar is the chance that New Mexico win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 68%.
The largest gap is 13 points: Polymarket has New Mexico at 81%, Axle at 68%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has New Mexico
All CFB ratings| UNM | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1638 25th of 138 | 1475 77th of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W6 | W4 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 0 | 3 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | WYO win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 32% | +1 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 31% | −1 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:17 AM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:12 AM ET | 32% | +6 |
| Nov 8, 1:27 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:52 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:47 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:31 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:20 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:15 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:10 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:05 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:47 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 8:24 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:39 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:34 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:29 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:24 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:09 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:59 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:09 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:49 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:29 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:54 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:49 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:29 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:24 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:19 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 12:14 AM ET | 26% | −4 |
| Nov 6, 11:04 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 11:36 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 30% | — |
New Mexico vs Wyoming odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Lobos at 73%, Polymarket at 81% (8 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 68%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | UNM | WYO | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 73% | 27% | ||
| Polymarket | 81% | 19% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 68% | 32% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
New Mexico Lobos vs Wyoming Cowboys prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Lobos a 7.5-point favorite, with a 68% chance to win. The model total is 47. Ratings: Cowboys 1475 (77th of 138), Lobos 1638 (25th). The Cowboys have won 4 of their last 5; the Lobos 5 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Cowboys won 3, the Lobos 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
New Mexico Lobos
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Nevada Wolf Pack | W 31–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San José State Spartans | W 21–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs North Dakota State Bison | W 21–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | W 21–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UTEP Miners | W 61–7 | – | – | matchup |
Wyoming Cowboys
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at UNLV Rebels | W 41–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Air Force Falcons | W 28–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Northern Illinois Huskies | W 41–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San José State Spartans | W 16–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| at North Dakota State Bison | L 0–28 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyoming Cowboys at New Mexico Lobos | 49–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| New Mexico Lobos at Wyoming Cowboys | 26–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| Wyoming Cowboys at New Mexico Lobos | 27–14 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
New Mexico Lobos: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Wyoming Cowboys: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Lobos– 1st · W6
- Lobos rating1638 25th of 138, 8 games
- Cowboys– 4th · W4
- Cowboys rating1475 77th of 138, 8 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · 1st · streak W6
No stances yet today on $UNM: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New Mexico Lobos bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 4th · streak W4
No stances yet today on $WYO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Wyoming Cowboys bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on New Mexico Lobos at Wyoming Cowboys
Sign in to post a take on $UNMWYO261122: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:11 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: New Mexico 68% to win. Projected score New Mexico 27, Wyoming 20; spread New Mexico −7.5, total 47. Kalshi 73%, Polymarket 81% for New Mexico. New Mexico Lobos at Wyoming Cowboys, Fri, Nov 20, 9:00 PM ET.