New Mexico State Aggies vs Missouri State Bears prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerMissouri State 66%
- Projected scoreMissouri State 29, New Mexico State 22
- Model spreadMissouri State −6.5 total 51
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
New Mexico State Aggies or Missouri State Bears: the bandwagon
Axle 34–66Market 55–45
New Mexico State Aggies at Missouri State Bears win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
New Mexico State Aggies vs Missouri State Bears live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
New Mexico State Aggies vs Missouri State Bears team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | NMSU | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NMSU– | MOST– |
| Average win probability | NMSU– | MOST– |
| Longest scoring run | NMSU– | MOST– |
| Time leading | NMSU– | MOST– |
New Mexico State Aggies vs Missouri State Bears model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | MOST win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 66% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 65% | +5 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 60% | — |
- Ratings
- MOST 1362 · NMSU 1324
- Home spread
- −6.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
New Mexico State vs Missouri State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Bears at 38%, Polymarket at 53% (15 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 66%.
Prices read: Kalshi (not de-vigged); Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | NMSU | MOST | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 62% | 38% | · not de-vigged | |
| Polymarket | 47% | 53% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 34% | 66% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
New Mexico State Aggies vs Missouri State Bears prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bears a 6.5-point favorite at home, with a 66% chance to win. The model total is 51. Ratings: Bears 1362 (116th of 138), Aggies 1324 (125th). The Bears have won 2 of their last 5; the Aggies 2 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Bears won 1, the Aggies 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
New Mexico State Aggies
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks | L 0–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Sam Houston Bearkats | W 30–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida International Panthers | L 3–22 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | W 34–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Mexico Lobos | L 18–42 | – | – | matchup |
Missouri State Bears
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Sam Houston Bearkats | W 24–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Delaware Blue Hens | L 38–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kennesaw State Owls | W 24–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | L 13–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| at SMU Mustangs | L 24–34 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri State Bears at New Mexico State Aggies | 24–17 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
New Mexico State Aggies: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Missouri State Bears: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Aggies– 5th · L1
- Aggies rating1324 125th of 138, 7 games
- Bears– 7th · W1
- Bears rating1362 116th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 5th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $NMSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New Mexico State Aggies bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 7th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $MOST: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Missouri State Bears bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on New Mexico State Aggies at Missouri State Bears
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Model: Missouri State 66% to win. Projected score Missouri State 29, New Mexico State 22; spread Missouri State −6.5, total 51. Kalshi 38%, Polymarket 53% for Missouri State. New Mexico State Aggies at Missouri State Bears, Sat, Nov 14, 3:00 PM ET.