Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Penn State Nittany Lions prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerPenn State 68%
- Projected scorePenn State 28, Minnesota 21
- Model spreadPenn State −7.5 total 48.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Minnesota Golden Gophers or Penn State Nittany Lions: the bandwagon
Be the first on the bandwagon
Axle 32–68Market 45–55
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Penn State Nittany Lions win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Penn State Nittany Lions live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Penn State Nittany Lions team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | MINN | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MINN– | PSU– |
| Average win probability | MINN– | PSU– |
| Longest scoring run | MINN– | PSU– |
| Time leading | MINN– | PSU– |
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Penn State Nittany Lions model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | PSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 68% | +2 |
| Oct 31, 7:26 PM ET | 66% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 65% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 64% | — |
- Ratings
- PSU 1580 · MINN 1529
- Home spread
- −7.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Minnesota vs Penn State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Nittany Lions at 68%, Polymarket at 43% (25 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 68%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | MINN | PSU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 32% | 68% | ||
| Polymarket | 57% | 43% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 32% | 68% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Penn State Nittany Lions prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Nittany Lions a 7.5-point favorite at home, with a 68% chance to win. The model total is 48.5. Ratings: Nittany Lions 1580 (39th of 138), Golden Gophers 1529 (59th). The Nittany Lions have won 1 of their last 5; the Golden Gophers 3 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Nittany Lions won 2, the Golden Gophers 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Minnesota Golden Gophers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Indiana Hoosiers | L 16–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Iowa Hawkeyes | W 13–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Purdue Boilermakers | L 13–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Michigan Wolverines | W 20–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington Huskies | W 27–24 | – | – | matchup |
Penn State Nittany Lions
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Purdue Boilermakers | W 31–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Michigan Wolverines | L 18–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs USC Trojans | L 23–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Northwestern Wildcats | L 13–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Wisconsin Badgers | L 20–24 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State Nittany Lions at Minnesota Golden Gophers | 26–25 | – | – | matchup | |
| Minnesota Golden Gophers at Penn State Nittany Lions | 17–45 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Minnesota Golden Gophers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Penn State Nittany Lions: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Golden Gophers– 8th · L1
- Golden Gophers rating1529 59th of 138, 7 games
- Nittany Lions– 14th · W1
- Nittany Lions rating1580 39th of 138, 8 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 8th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $MINN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Minnesota Golden Gophers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 14th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $PSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Penn State Nittany Lions bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Minnesota Golden Gophers at Penn State Nittany Lions
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Model: Penn State 68% to win. Projected score Penn State 28, Minnesota 21; spread Penn State −7.5, total 48.5. Kalshi 68%, Polymarket 43% for Penn State. Minnesota Golden Gophers at Penn State Nittany Lions, Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM ET.