Still 0-0 with 14:44 left in the first quarter. The model has the Scarlet Knights at 25 percent, so the numbers lean toward Michigan for now.
FBS · · every NCAA Division I FBS football line
Michigan Wolverines vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreMichigan 28, Rutgers 21 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerMichigan 75%
- Pregame Projected scoreMichigan 31, Rutgers 20
- Model spreadMichigan −11 total 51
- Margin7 projected 11
- Total49 projected 51
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Michigan Wolverines or Rutgers Scarlet Knights: the bandwagon
Axle 75–25Market 86–14
FinalPregame: RUTG 25%Baseline: RUTG 17.4% (−7.2)Big swing: 27.1 ptsClutch window: 15:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MICH | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
| RUTG | 3 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 21 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Michigan Wolverines at Rutgers Scarlet Knights win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to MICH−21.0 points for RUTG over the last 5:00
Big swing27.1 ptstoward MICH at 48:37 of game time
Clutch window15:00within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineRUTG 17.4%game average, −7.2 points from the pregame 24.6%
Michigan Wolverines vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | MICH | RUTG |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | MICH427 | RUTG249 |
| First downs | MICH23 | RUTG9 |
| 3rd down | MICH12/16 | RUTG3/10 |
| 4th down | MICH0/0 | RUTG0/0 |
| Turnovers | MICH0 | RUTG0 |
| Penalties-yards | MICH7-90 | RUTG5-35 |
| Time of possession | MICH39:06 | RUTG20:54 |
Michigan Wolverines vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | MICH | RUTG |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MICH28 | RUTG21 |
| Average win probability | MICH83% | RUTG17% |
| Longest scoring run | MICH+7 | RUTG+10 |
| Time leading | MICH44:28 | RUTG0:00 |
Michigan Wolverines vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET
Wolverines75%
Win chanceScarlet Knights25%
SpreadMICH −11closing model spread
Total51
Moneyline−306away / +306homeaway / home
Line movementRUTG win chance, 18 stored lines
No move
30%19%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | RUTG win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 25% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 24% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 25% | +1 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 24% | −1 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 25% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 24% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 25% | — |
- Ratings
- RUTG 1393 · MICH 1606
- Home spread
- +11
- Stored
- Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET · 2026-10-31 19:41 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
- Last move
- home 24% → 25%
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Michigan Wolverines 28, Rutgers Scarlet Knights 21. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
WolverinesScarlet Knights
Neutrals only–
WolverinesScarlet Knights
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Scarlet Knights–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Michigan vs Rutgers odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Wolverines at 86% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 87% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 75% when last read, ; the two venues were 1 point apart at those reads.
| Source | MICH | RUTG | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 86% | 14% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 87% | 13% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 75% | 25% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, RUTG: −10Polymarket minus model, RUTG: −11
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Michigan Wolverines vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Wolverines a 11-point favorite, with a 75% chance to win. The model total is 51. Ratings: Scarlet Knights 1379 (111th of 138), Wolverines 1620 (29th). The Scarlet Knights have won 1 of their last 5; the Wolverines 2 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Scarlet Knights won 0, the Wolverines 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Michigan Wolverines
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Rutgers Scarlet Knights | W 28–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Indiana Hoosiers | L 6–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Penn State Nittany Lions | W 21–18 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Minnesota Golden Gophers | L 14–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Iowa Hawkeyes | L 19–20 | – | – | matchup |
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Michigan Wolverines | L 21–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Northwestern Wildcats | L 14–42 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Maryland Terrapins | W 37–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Indiana Hoosiers | L 15–47 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs USC Trojans | L 35–42 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Michigan Wolverines | 7–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| Michigan Wolverines at Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 52–17 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Michigan Wolverines: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Rutgers Scarlet Knights: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Wolverines– 12th · W1
- Wolverines rating1620 29th of 138, 8 games
- Scarlet Knights– 16th · L2
- Scarlet Knights rating1379 111th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 12th · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $MICH
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $MICH
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $MICH
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $MICH: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Michigan Wolverines bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 16th · streak L2
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $RUTG
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $RUTG
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $RUTG
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $RUTG: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Michigan Wolverines at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
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Final: Michigan 28, Rutgers 21. Bandwagon's model had the Michigan at 75% and projected Michigan 31, Rutgers 20; spread Michigan −11, total 51. Last read: Kalshi 86%, Polymarket 87% for Michigan.