Marshall Thundering Herd vs UL Monroe Warhawks prediction, odds and picks, November 27, 2026
Marshall at UL Monroe: Bandwagon's model makes Marshall a 77% favorite (Marshall −12).
Marshall Thundering Herd vs UL Monroe Warhawks odds and win probability
Axle gives Marshall a 77% chance to win, by about 12 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Marshall
All CFB ratings| MRSH | ULM | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1471 79th of 138 | 1244 133rd of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 0 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | ULM win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 23% | — |
Marshall Thundering Herd vs UL Monroe Warhawks prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Thundering Herd a 12-point favorite, with a 77% chance to win. The model total is 52.5. Ratings: Warhawks 1244 (133rd of 138), Thundering Herd 1471 (79th). The Warhawks have won 2 of their last 5; the Thundering Herd 2 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Warhawks won 0, the Thundering Herd 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Marshall Thundering Herd
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Georgia Southern Eagles | L 13–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Old Dominion Monarchs | W 36–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs South Alabama Jaguars | W 20–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | L 21–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| at James Madison Dukes | L 17–45 | – | – | matchup |
UL Monroe Warhawks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Arkansas State Red Wolves | W 19–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles | L 21–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Troy Trojans | W 21–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | L 0–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at South Alabama Jaguars | L 35–52 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UL Monroe Warhawks at Marshall Thundering Herd | 23–28 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Marshall Thundering Herd: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
UL Monroe Warhawks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Thundering Herd– Sun Belt - East, 5th · L1
- Thundering Herd rating1471 79th of 138, 8 games
- Warhawks– Sun Belt - West, 7th · W1
- Warhawks rating1244 133rd of 138, 8 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - East · 5th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $MRSH: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Marshall Thundering Herd bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - West · 7th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $ULM: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UL Monroe Warhawks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Marshall Thundering Herd at UL Monroe Warhawks
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Marshall 77% to win. Projected score Marshall 32, UL Monroe 20; spread Marshall −12, total 52.5. Marshall Thundering Herd at UL Monroe Warhawks, Sat, Nov 28, 12:00 AM ET.