UL Monroe Warhawks vs Arkansas State Red Wolves prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerArkansas State 88%
- Projected scoreArkansas State 37, UL Monroe 17
- Model spreadArkansas State −19.5 total 54.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
UL Monroe Warhawks or Arkansas State Red Wolves: the bandwagon
Axle 12–88Market 15–85
UL Monroe Warhawks at Arkansas State Red Wolves win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
UL Monroe Warhawks vs Arkansas State Red Wolves live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
UL Monroe Warhawks vs Arkansas State Red Wolves team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | ULM | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ULM– | ARST– |
| Average win probability | ULM– | ARST– |
| Longest scoring run | ULM– | ARST– |
| Time leading | ULM– | ARST– |
UL Monroe Warhawks vs Arkansas State Red Wolves model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | ARST win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:06 PM ET | 88% | +3 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 85% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 87% | — |
- Ratings
- ARST 1447 · ULM 1221
- Home spread
- −19.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
UL Monroe vs Arkansas State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Red Wolves at 85%, Polymarket at 85%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 88%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | ULM | ARST | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 15% | 85% | ||
| Polymarket | 15% | 85% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 12% | 88% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
UL Monroe Warhawks vs Arkansas State Red Wolves prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Red Wolves a 19.5-point favorite at home, with a 88% chance to win. The model total is 54.5. Ratings: Red Wolves 1447 (84th of 138), Warhawks 1221 (136th). The Red Wolves have won 3 of their last 5; the Warhawks 1 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Red Wolves won 3, the Warhawks 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
UL Monroe Warhawks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles | L 21–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Troy Trojans | W 21–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | L 0–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at South Alabama Jaguars | L 35–52 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida Atlantic Owls | L 17–45 | – | – | matchup |
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Georgia State Panthers | W 38–32 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Southern Miss Golden Eagles | W 23–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs South Alabama Jaguars | L 49–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | L 20–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kennesaw State Owls | W 17–14 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State Red Wolves at UL Monroe Warhawks | 16–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| UL Monroe Warhawks at Arkansas State Red Wolves | 21–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves at UL Monroe Warhawks | 34–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| UL Monroe Warhawks at Arkansas State Red Wolves | 28–45 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
UL Monroe Warhawks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Arkansas State Red Wolves: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Warhawks– Sun Belt - West, 7th · L1
- Warhawks rating1221 136th of 138, 7 games
- Red Wolves– Sun Belt - West, 4th · W2
- Red Wolves rating1447 84th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - West · 7th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $ULM: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UL Monroe Warhawks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - West · 4th · streak W2
No stances yet today on $ARST: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Arkansas State Red Wolves bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on UL Monroe Warhawks at Arkansas State Red Wolves
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Model: Arkansas State 88% to win. Projected score Arkansas State 37, UL Monroe 17; spread Arkansas State −19.5, total 54.5. Kalshi 85%, Polymarket 85% for Arkansas State. UL Monroe Warhawks at Arkansas State Red Wolves, Sat, Nov 7, 3:00 PM ET.