Liberty Flames vs Missouri State Bears prediction, odds and picks, November 28, 2026
Liberty at Missouri State: Bandwagon's model makes Liberty an 80% favorite (Liberty −13.5).
Liberty Flames vs Missouri State Bears odds and win probability
Axle gives Liberty a 80% chance to win, by about 14 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Liberty
All CFB ratings| LIB | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1602 32nd of 138 | 1350 122nd of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W8 | L1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 0 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | MOST win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 20% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 20% | +1 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 19% | −1 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 20% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 20% | — |
Liberty Flames vs Missouri State Bears prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Flames a 13.5-point favorite, with a 80% chance to win. The model total is 51. Ratings: Bears 1350 (122nd of 138), Flames 1602 (32nd). The Bears have won 2 of their last 5; the Flames 5 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Bears won 1, the Flames 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Liberty Flames
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at New Mexico State Aggies | W 30–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida International Panthers | W 49–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Kennesaw State Owls | W 34–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sam Houston Bearkats | W 35–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Delaware Blue Hens | W 30–14 | – | – | matchup |
Missouri State Bears
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Florida International Panthers | L 20–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sam Houston Bearkats | W 24–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Delaware Blue Hens | L 38–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kennesaw State Owls | W 24–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | L 13–34 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri State Bears at Liberty Flames | 21–17 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Liberty Flames: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Missouri State Bears: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Flames– 1st · W8
- Flames rating1602 32nd of 138, 8 games
- Bears– 8th · L1
- Bears rating1350 122nd of 138, 8 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · 1st · streak W8
No stances yet today on $LIB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Liberty Flames bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 8th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $MOST: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Missouri State Bears bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Liberty Flames at Missouri State Bears
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Liberty 80% to win. Projected score Liberty 32, Missouri State 19; spread Liberty −13.5, total 51. Liberty Flames at Missouri State Bears, Sat, Nov 28, 2:00 PM ET.