Missouri State Bears vs Florida International Panthers prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerFlorida International 67%
- Projected scoreFlorida International 28, Missouri State 22
- Model spreadFlorida International −7 total 50
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Missouri State Bears or Florida International Panthers: the bandwagon
Axle 33–67Market 34–66
Missouri State Bears at Florida International Panthers win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Missouri State Bears vs Florida International Panthers live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Missouri State Bears vs Florida International Panthers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | MOST | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MOST– | FIU– |
| Average win probability | MOST– | FIU– |
| Longest scoring run | MOST– | FIU– |
| Time leading | MOST– | FIU– |
Missouri State Bears vs Florida International Panthers model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | FIU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:41 PM ET | 67% | −3 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 70% | −6 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 76% | — |
- Ratings
- FIU 1406 · MOST 1362
- Home spread
- −7
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Missouri State vs Florida International odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Panthers at 66%, Polymarket at 66%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 67%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | MOST | FIU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 34% | 66% | ||
| Polymarket | 34% | 66% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 33% | 67% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Missouri State Bears vs Florida International Panthers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Panthers a 7-point favorite at home, with a 67% chance to win. The model total is 50. Ratings: Panthers 1406 (100th of 138), Bears 1362 (116th). The Panthers have won 1 of their last 5; the Bears 2 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Panthers won 0, the Bears 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Missouri State Bears
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Sam Houston Bearkats | W 24–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Delaware Blue Hens | L 38–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kennesaw State Owls | W 24–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | L 13–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| at SMU Mustangs | L 24–34 | – | – | matchup |
Florida International Panthers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Liberty Flames | L 10–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | L 23–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Jacksonville State Gamecocks | L 24–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Mexico State Aggies | W 22–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida Atlantic Owls | L 10–16 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida International Panthers at Missouri State Bears | 21–28 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Missouri State Bears: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Florida International Panthers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bears– 7th · W1
- Bears rating1362 116th of 138, 7 games
- Panthers– 8th · L3
- Panthers rating1406 100th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 7th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $MOST: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Missouri State Bears bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 8th · streak L3
No stances yet today on $FIU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Florida International Panthers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Missouri State Bears at Florida International Panthers
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Model: Florida International 67% to win. Projected score Florida International 28, Missouri State 22; spread Florida International −7, total 50. Kalshi 66%, Polymarket 66% for Florida International. Missouri State Bears at Florida International Panthers, Sat, Nov 7, 4:00 PM ET.